A recent analysis by the Conservative party suggests that Labour's immigration policy changes could result in an additional annual cost of over £5 billion to British taxpayers by 2030. The Conservatives estimate that approximately 450,000 foreign nationals could become eligible for universal credit due to a U-turn announced by Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood.
The estimated annual cost of £5.2 billion by 2030-31 is significantly higher than previous Home Office figures, which projected a lifetime cost of £10 billion for migrants. These new figures are based on the premise that a portion of the 1.4 million foreign nationals granted a faster route to settlement, known as indefinite leave to remain (ILR), will claim universal credit.
The Conservatives assert that 32 percent of non-European Union citizens with ILR currently claim universal credit. Applying this percentage to the 1.4 million individuals who will now have a five-year track to settlement suggests an additional 446,352 claimants. With an average annual payment of £11,694, this would amount to the £5.2 billion annual bill.
Opposition figures within the Conservative party have criticized Labour's policy shift. Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Helen Whately stated that the country cannot afford the escalating benefits bill and that individuals coming to the UK should contribute rather than draw benefits. She indicated that a future Conservative government would prioritize British citizens in the welfare system and prevent immigrants from automatically accessing universal credit and sickness benefits.
Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp added that settlement should be earned through work and contribution, not serve as a route to lifetime benefits. Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch vowed that any migrants granted settled status under Labour's revised policy could have that status revoked by a future Conservative government if they fail to make a "net contribution" to the country.
Badenoch further criticized Labour, suggesting they are "addicted to welfare" and that Prime Minister Andy Burnham may have influenced the policy change to unite the Left before an election. She characterized Labour as the "Welfare Party," claiming their focus on benefits, even for non-citizens, is motivated by electoral gain.
A Home Office source disputed the Conservative analysis, attributing the current situation to the previous Conservative government's handling of migration. The source stated that Labour is working to ensure settlement follows contribution and that half a million people who were granted visas under the Conservatives will not be allowed to settle in the next five years due to current government actions. This source claimed the Conservative analysis incorrectly assumes the current government would be as lenient as the previous one.