Analysis suggests that the Labour party is on track to fall short of its manifesto pledge to build 1.5 million new homes by 2029, with current construction rates indicating a deficit of approximately 200,000 units. To meet the target, more than 1,000 new homes would need to be built each day, more than doubling the current pace of construction.
Research conducted by Land Value Calculator (LVC) found that even during the peak building year of 2020, the average daily construction rate was only 679 homes. The figures indicate that builders must complete hundreds more homes daily and sustain this accelerated pace for the next three years to achieve the 1.5 million-home goal.
"No independent analyst currently thinks the Government is on track to hit its target," a spokesman for LVC stated. While noting that new-build starts have risen 43 percent from their mid-2024 low, the spokesman added, "at 130,170 a year, they remain a quarter below 2023 and below the current rate of completions."
Angela Rayner, who has been reappointed as Housing Secretary, acknowledged that the 1.5 million-home ambition is a "really difficult stretch target." Despite its challenging nature, she affirmed that the goal would not be abandoned, though she noted it was more difficult to achieve than when initially set.
The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government, however, expressed confidence that projected reforms would lead to an increase in housebuilding. A spokesperson for the ministry stated that the LVC data does not account for expected ramp-ups as reforms take effect. These reforms include measures to streamline the planning system, support for builders through a £16 billion National Housing Bank, and £39 billion invested in social and affordable housing. The ministry also reported a 15 percent increase in housing starts compared to the previous year.