Labour Recovers in Polls as Reform Surge Ebbs, Sparking Election Speculation

Labour conference is being shadowed by rumors of a snap election, despite senior figures like Andy Burnham stating the idea is "dead." A recent comprehensive poll indicates that the party's position has substantially improved as the gathering in Liverpool commences.

The More in Common research found that if an election were held now, Labour would secure 250 seats, a notable increase from the 140 MPs projected in July. Reform UK, in contrast, is now estimated to win 147 seats, a significant drop from its projection just three months prior, though still a substantial gain compared to 2024. The Conservative Party is shown trailing closely behind with 125 seats.

While the poll suggests Labour would fall short of an outright majority, it indicates the possibility of governing with support from the Liberal Democrats (63 MPs) and the Scottish National Party (27 MPs). Concerns have been raised on the right of the political spectrum about a potential "rainbow coalition," with fears that Burnham might concede to major demands, such as a new Scottish independence referendum.

When accounting for tactical voting, the poll suggests Labour could gain an additional 25 seats, potentially allowing for a majority solely with the backing of the Liberal Democrats. Under this scenario, Reform UK's seat count could fall to 117, being overtaken by the Conservatives at 132 seats.

Calling an immediate election would represent a considerable risk for the Prime Minister, given the government's current substantial majority and nearly three years remaining in the parliamentary term. Proponents of an early election hope Labour's standing would improve during a campaign.

Burnham, however, has repeatedly dismissed speculation of an election before 2029. He recently suggested to the BBC that a social care plan would need to be in place and included in the manifesto before any ballot could be considered.

The More in Common research utilized the "MRP" (Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification) technique, mapping poll findings onto the demographic characteristics of individual constituencies. The study involved interviews with nearly 16,000 adults between August 21 and September 21.

Luke Tryl, More in Common's UK Director, commented on the shifting electoral landscape. "Fast forward to today, and it is clear the electoral landscape has transformed dramatically with Andy Burnham as Prime Minister," he stated. However, Tryl cautioned that "volatility has become the new watch word of our electoral system," with almost half of the estimated seats being won by margins of less than 5 percent.

"The other clear message of these numbers is that tactical voting, of the sort we have already seen play out in by-elections, could have an outsized impact on the numbers – giving a Lib-Lab coalition the numbers for a majority and allowing the Tories to leapfrog Reform," Tryl added.

He further advised that Burnham's stance against an early election was "sensible." "While Labour is off its death bed, the party's recovery is far from complete," Tryl said. "To call a poll the Prime Minister would have had to be willing to risk the careers of scores of his colleagues including his Chancellor and Foreign Secretary, while even small shifts in the current numbers would have left him vulnerable to having a stint in Downing Street only longer than that of Liz Truss."