Labour Polls Surge After Burnham Speech Amid Snap Election Speculation
The opposition party reaches its highest rating since 2024, while projections suggest significant seat gains in a potential early election.
Labour's support has risen to 30%, its highest rating in polls conducted by Opinium since 2024, following a conference speech by Andy Burnham. The surge comes as speculation about a snap general election intensifies.
Reform trails Labour by five points, with its support at 25% after gaining a point. The Conservative party is polling at 17%.
Electoral Calculus projections, based on these figures, indicate that Labour could secure 342 seats in a general election. Reform could obtain 155 seats, and the Conservatives might be reduced to 55 seats. However, analysts note that constituency-level volatility could make the precise outcome difficult to predict.
Burnham has publicly dismissed the possibility of a snap election, stating the idea was "dead" before the Labour conference. Despite these assurances, his speech in Liverpool outlined policies on social care, electoral reform, the state pension 'triple lock,' and Brexit, proposals that would typically be implemented after an election.
Meanwhile, Kemi Badenoch, set to open the Conservative conference, has reportedly urged her party to prepare for a potential ballot in May.
While the Opinium poll presents a challenging outlook for the Conservatives, other polling firms have shown more favorable results for the party. The latest survey indicates a slight increase in Burnham's personal approval rating to a net positive of eight, up one point. Badenoch's personal rating stands at minus one, and Nigel Farage's is at minus 22.
The Opinium research also found public support for a national social care service, a policy proposed by Burnham, though details on its implementation and funding have not been fully disclosed. Voters also expressed support for Burnham's stated intention to examine the UK's relationship with the European Union.
James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs at Opinium, commented that Burnham's conference speech, featuring significant policy announcements, successfully captured the political agenda. He questioned whether Badenoch could achieve a similar level of public attention during the upcoming Conservative conference.