Labour is positioned to retain the Greater Manchester mayoral seat, according to a new poll that suggests the Reform party is losing support to the hard-right Restore party.
Bev Craig of the Labour party is projected to win the by-election, which was necessitated by Andy Burnham's return to Westminster. The poll indicates Craig will secure 38 percent of the vote in the first round. The election will utilize the supplementary vote system, allowing voters to select a second-preference candidate if no one achieves over 50 percent in the initial round.
In a potential second-round run-off, the poll predicts Craig would defeat the Green candidate with 64 percent of the vote to 36 percent. Against the Reform candidate, Craig is forecast to win 66 percent to 34 percent.
The Green Party is expected to finish second in the first round with 22 percent of the vote, a significant increase from its fifth-place finish in 2024. Reform is forecast to come in third with 19 percent, as the party focuses on the Clacton by-election.
The hard-right Restore party, led by Rupert Low, is projected to finish fourth with 9 percent of the vote, narrowly ahead of the Conservative candidate, Phil Eckersley, who is predicted to receive 8 percent. In the 2024 election, the Conservative party had secured second place.
Bev Craig currently serves as a deputy mayor in Greater Manchester, with responsibilities for the economy, business, and inclusive growth. She became the leader of Manchester City Council in December 2021. Craig, who is 41, is the city's first female council leader and its first LGBT leader.
The Green candidate, Geraldine Coggins, and the Tory candidate, Phil Eckersley, both serve as Trafford councillors. Sian Astley, the Reform candidate, leads the party's group on Manchester City Council. Marlon West is standing as the candidate for Restore Britain.