Labour is on course to maintain control of Greater Manchester, with a new poll indicating a substantial lead for Bev Craig, the party's candidate to succeed Andy Burnham as mayor. According to YouGov, Craig holds a 14-point advantage over Reform's Sian Astley, with 38 percent support compared to Astley's 24 percent in the first round of voting scheduled for July 30. Projections suggest Craig would win a head-to-head contest in the second round with 62 percent to Astley's 38 percent.
This poll follows another earlier in the week that also projected a comfortable victory for Labour in an election where Reform had initially held expectations of a strong performance. These developments come after Andy Burnham's decisive win in the Makerfield by-election last month, where Reform's results fell short of expectations. The Reform party is reportedly focusing its resources on the Clacton by-election, called by Nigel Farage, amidst internal disputes over the party's financial arrangements.
The YouGov poll also indicated a high approval rating for Andy Burnham's tenure as mayor, with 66 percent of voters viewing his performance positively. This includes support from a majority of Conservative, Green, and Liberal Democrat voters, as well as 36 percent of Reform voters. A plurality of respondents, 44 percent, also believe Burnham made the right decision to resign as mayor to pursue the Labour leadership.
The upcoming mayoral election will utilize the supplementary vote system, a change from the first-past-the-post system used in 2024. Under the supplementary vote, voters can rank their second-choice candidate. If no candidate secures over 50 percent of the first-round votes, a second round is triggered based on these second preferences.
An earlier Find Out Now poll indicated similar results, showing Craig defeating the Green candidate 64-36 in the second round and Reform 66-34. Bev Craig currently serves as a deputy mayor in Greater Manchester, overseeing the economy, business, and inclusive growth portfolios. She became leader of Manchester City Council in December 2021. Craig, 41, is the city's first female council leader and its first LGBT leader.
Other candidates in the race include Geraldine Coggins for the Green Party, Phil Eckersley for the Conservative Party, Sian Astley for Reform, and Marlon West for Restore Britain. Astley leads the Reform party group on Manchester City Council, while Coggins and Eckersley are Trafford councillors.