Labour Gains Ground in New Poll Amid Snap Election Rumors

Labour is facing rumors of a snap election, despite assurances from Andy Burnham that the possibility is "dead." This speculation comes as a new megapoll suggests a notable improvement in Labour's standing, coinciding with the party's conference in Liverpool.

The More in Common research indicates that if an election were held currently, Labour would secure 250 Members of Parliament. This represents a substantial increase from the 140 MPs estimated in July. In contrast, Reform is projected to win 147 seats, a considerable decrease from 146 fewer seats than a snapshot taken just three months prior, though still a significant rise compared to 2024. The Conservatives are predicted to follow closely with 125 seats.

While this poll data suggests Labour would fall short of an outright majority, they could potentially govern with the support of the Liberal Democrats' 63 MPs and the Scottish National Party's 27 MPs. The prospect of such a "rainbow coalition" has raised concerns on the right, with fears that Burnham might agree to significant concessions, such as a new referendum on Scottish independence.

When accounting for tactical voting, Labour could gain an additional 25 seats, according to More in Common. This would enable them to form a majority government solely with the backing of the Liberal Democrats. Under these adjusted projections, Reform could see its seat count fall to 117, being overtaken by the Conservatives, who would then hold 132 seats.

Calling an election now would present a substantial risk for the Prime Minister, as the government currently holds a significant majority and has nearly three years remaining in its parliamentary term. Proponents of an early election hope Labour's position might improve further during a campaign.

Burnham had previously stated in broadcast interviews that he was "knocking dead" rumors of an election before 2029. He indicated to the BBC that a social care plan would need to be established before any ballot, as he is committed to including it in the party manifesto.

The More in Common research utilized the 'MRP' (Multi-Level Regression and Post-Stratification) technique, mapping poll findings onto the demographic characteristics of individual constituencies. The study involved interviews with nearly 16,000 adults between August 21 and September 21.

Luke Tryl, More in Common's UK Director, commented on the findings, noting the dramatic transformation in the electoral landscape since the previous year's Labour Party Conference, when Reform was projected to achieve a near-majority of seats, and both Labour and the Conservatives dropped below triple figures. "Fast forward to today, and it is clear the electoral landscape has transformed dramatically with Andy Burnham as Prime Minister," Tryl stated.

However, Tryl also emphasized the increasing "volatility" in the electoral system, with nearly half of the projected seats being won by margins of less than 5 percent. "The other clear message of these numbers is that tactical voting, of the sort we have already seen play out in by-elections, could have an outsized impact on the numbers – giving a Lib-Lab coalition the numbers for a majority and allowing the Tories to leapfrog Reform," he added.

Tryl suggested that the poll results indicate Burnham is being "sensible" in ruling out an early election. "While Labour is off its death bed, the party's recovery is far from complete," he said. "To call a poll the Prime Minister would have had to be willing to risk the careers of scores of his colleagues including his Chancellor and Foreign Secretary, while even small shifts in the current numbers would have left him vulnerable to having a stint in Downing Street only longer than that of Liz Truss."