Labour Gains Five-Point Lead Over Reform in New Poll Amid Election Speculation
A YouGov poll indicates a post-conference surge for Labour, potentially positioning them for a coalition government if a snap election is called.
New polling data suggests the Labour party has opened a five-point lead over the Reform party, with support for Labour up three points to 27% following their recent conference. The findings from YouGov mark the first statistically significant lead for any party in three months and indicate that Reform has dropped by a similar proportion, now standing at 22%.
The Conservative party trails in third place with 20% support, according to the YouGov poll. If these figures were reflected in a general election, Labour would be on track to remain in power, though potentially requiring support from the Liberal Democrats to secure an overall majority.
This poll data emerges amid heightened speculation about a potential snap general election. Labour leader Andy Burnham has been working to quell rumors, stating that the idea of an early election is "dead." However, he used his keynote speech at the Labour conference in Liverpool to outline policy proposals concerning social care, electoral reform, the state pension 'triple lock,' and post-election Brexit adjustments. Meanwhile, Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch, speaking at the Conservative conference in Birmingham, has urged her party to prepare for a possible election in May.
An earlier Opinium survey released over the weekend also showed a rise in Labour's support to 30%, its highest point since 2024. In that poll, Reform was five points behind at 25%, having gained one point, while the Conservatives were at 17%. Electoral Calculus projections based on these figures suggest Labour could win 342 seats, Reform 155, and the Conservatives 55, though the volatility of constituency results makes such outcomes difficult to predict with certainty.