Labour Extends Lead in Latest UK Polls Amid Conservative Gains

Labour has achieved its largest poll lead since the 2024 general election, according to the latest Ipsos UK survey. The opposition party currently holds 32 percent support, an increase of five percentage points from the previous month, giving them an eight-point advantage over the Conservatives.

The Conservative Party, with 24 percent support, has moved into second place for the first time since June of the previous year. This rise in Tory popularity coincides with Kemi Badenoch, Leader of the Opposition, reaching her highest personal approval ratings since taking on the role in November 2024. The poll, conducted between October 15 and 22, found 35 percent satisfaction with Badenoch's performance as Tory leader, a seven-point increase from September. Her dissatisfaction rating dropped seven points to 39 percent.

Meanwhile, Reform UK has fallen to 20 percent support, a three-point decrease from last month, following recent controversies. The Green Party's support has dropped to 8 percent, down five points, amidst ongoing challenges related to anti-Semitism within the party.

Andy Burnham, Labour's leader, also saw an increase in his satisfaction ratings, with 35 percent satisfied with his job as Prime Minister, up four points. However, 45 percent remain dissatisfied, a one-point decrease.

Zack Polanski, leader of the Green Party, experienced a notable decline in his satisfaction ratings, with only 17 percent satisfied with his performance, down one point. A total of 56 percent are dissatisfied with Polanski, the highest dissatisfaction level recorded since he became Green leader in September of the previous year.

The poll suggests that both Labour and the Conservatives are benefiting from retaining more of their existing voters and losing fewer to smaller parties. The Conservatives are now losing 16 percent of their 2024 vote share to Reform UK, down from 22 percent last month. Labour is losing 5 percent of its 2024 support to the Greens, a decrease from 12 percent in September.

The government's net satisfaction score has improved to -43, its highest point since Boris Johnson was Prime Minister in 2022. Twenty-three percent of respondents are satisfied with the government's performance, an increase of five points, while dissatisfaction fell by four points to 66 percent.

Keiran Pedley, director of politics at Ipsos in the UK, noted that while the overall figures show a significant shift, they reflect an ongoing pattern. He stated that Labour under Burnham is becoming more unified on the left, and the Conservative Party is now clearly in second place ahead of Reform UK. Pedley cautioned against overreacting to a single poll, highlighting the volatility of British politics and the potential for further shifts, especially with a challenging government budget upcoming.