Labour Could Secure 56-Seat Majority in Next Election, New Poll Suggests

New polling data from Electoral Calculus, based on Find Out Now surveys, suggests that the Labour Party could achieve a 56-seat majority in the House of Commons if a general election were held imminently. The research projects Labour winning 353 seats, a substantial lead over the Conservative Party, which is forecast to secure 90 seats.

Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, is projected to win 81 constituencies, falling behind the Tories in the number of parliamentary seats. The poll, an MRP (Multilevel Regression with Post-stratification) conducted for communications agency PLMR, highlights a notable increase in Labour's support, a phenomenon being referred to as a 'Burnham bounce'.

This projected surge in popularity for Labour under its current leadership is expected to fuel speculation about the possibility of an early general election. While Prime Minister Andy Burnham has recently indicated an intention to wait until 2029, some in Westminster anticipate a national vote as early as May of next year, or potentially even in December.

Previous research by Electoral Calculus in April, before Burnham replaced Keir Starmer as Prime Minister, indicated that Labour was facing a significant decline, with a projected total of only 86 MPs. However, the latest polling, conducted during Labour's recent conference in Liverpool, shows the party has overtaken Reform UK in projected seat numbers, with Burnham appearing to rally left-leaning voters.

The current MRP projection also forecasts the Liberal Democrats winning 70 seats and the SNP securing 28 constituencies. The Green Party is expected to win just 4 seats, a decrease from the 71 seats they were anticipated to gain in April, a period when they benefited from Sir Keir's perceived unpopularity.

In terms of vote share for the current month's survey, Labour is listed at 28 percent, an increase from 17 percent in April. Reform UK follows with 21 percent, and the Conservatives are at 18 percent. The newly formed right-wing group Restore Britain, fronted by Rupert Lowe, registered 8 percent, indicating it is capturing some of Reform UK's support. However, Restore Britain is projected to win only one seat, that of Rupert Lowe in the Great Yarmouth constituency.

The latest MRP projection incorporates the potential for tactical voting, revealing that over a third of Labour voters indicated a willingness to vote Conservative to prevent Reform UK from winning.

Despite the positive shift in Labour's standing, the government has been cautioned that the British political landscape remains highly volatile. Kevin Craig, CEO and founder of PLMR, stated that while voters are giving Labour renewed consideration, they will be looking for tangible delivery on key issues like the cost of living and public services before fully committing their support. Craig emphasized that the coming months will be critical in determining whether Burnham can sustain this rise in support.

Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, commented on the remarkable reversal in Labour's fortunes, attributing it to Burnham's use of clear left-of-centre rhetoric. Baxter noted that this approach appears to have won back voters who had shifted to the Liberal Democrats and the Greens under Starmer's leadership, rather than focusing on attracting Reform voters. He also pointed out that the right-wing vote remains divided, with Restore Britain's impact on Reform UK's support leading to fewer projected seats for Farage's party than for the Conservatives. Baxter concluded that a pact between the Conservatives and Reform UK would yield only 171 seats, significantly less than Labour's projected 353, suggesting that uniting first is a key strategy for electoral success under the current first-past-the-post system.

Fieldwork for the latest MRP was conducted between September 25 and October 2, with responses gathered from 6,699 adults across Great Britain.