Kylian Mbappe's stuttering penalty miss in France's quarter-final victory over Morocco has brought renewed attention to the effectiveness of the "stutter" technique in penalty kicks. While Mbappe later scored, his earlier miss, along with other notable failures in the tournament, has fueled debate about whether players should abandon this approach.
Penalty Performance in the World Cup
Data from the recent World Cup indicates a challenging tournament for penalty takers. Of the 26 "stutter" penalties taken, including those in shootouts, 11 were unsuccessful, resulting in a conversion rate of 57%. In contrast, 24 out of 35 "non-stutter" penalties were scored, yielding a higher conversion rate of 68%.
When shootouts are excluded, 30% of all penalties in the tournament were missed, the second-highest rate since records began in 1966. Including shootout penalties, the miss rate rises to 35%, the highest recorded in any World Cup since 1966.
Former Scotland winger Pat Nevin commented on the BBC that goalkeepers seem to have gained an advantage, citing their increased size and athleticism. "A very good penalty is no longer a certainty, so you have to re-think it," Nevin stated. He suggested that the stutter is an attempt to deceive goalkeepers into committing early, allowing the taker to aim for the opposite side.
The "Stutter" Technique
The "stutter" or "hop" run-up, where a player pauses or feints during their approach to the ball, is a tactic employed by many players. While FIFA rules permit a stop or feint as long as it's not directly before striking the ball, it can backfire if the goalkeeper anticipates the shot. Historically, players like Hugo Sanchez and Pele utilized this method. However, recent examples such as Mbappe, Bruno Guimaraes, Jorgen Strand Larsen, Lionel Messi, and Harry Kane (who was allowed a retake) have missed penalties after employing a stutter.
Players who have successfully used the stutter include Marko Arnautovic, Raul Jimenez, Neymar, Cristiano Ronaldo, Yoane Wissa, and Kai Havertz. Despite these successes, the overall trend suggests a declining effectiveness.
An Evolving Contest
Experts suggest an ongoing "arms race" between penalty takers and goalkeepers. Goalkeepers now have access to data and analysis of player tendencies, making it harder for takers to rely on predictable strategies. Mbappe himself is known for his preparation, which involves a ritual of setting up the ball before his attempt. However, in the Morocco match, he reportedly had to go through this process three times before his eventual miss.
The increasing difficulty in scoring penalties means that even well-placed shots can be saved, forcing players to constantly adapt their approach to gain an advantage.