Key to Ukraine Truce: Putin Must Believe West Won't Abandon Kyiv
Russia's president likely to continue fighting unless convinced of unwavering Western support for Ukraine.
Diplomats meeting on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly may seek progress toward a ceasefire in Ukraine, but the ultimate decision for a pause in fighting rests with Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to analysis.
Putin's current stance reportedly includes demands for significant territorial concessions from Ukraine, specifically the Donbas region, in addition to areas already under Russian control. This position, coupled with a willingness to endure high casualty counts among his own forces and a disregard for the suffering of Ukrainians, suggests a continued inclination to wage war.
The Russian president also faces challenges related to Moscow's dependence on Beijing, though he is expected to seek a rebalancing of this relationship in the future. Furthermore, Putin appears to be betting on a potential wavering of Western support for Ukraine or other favorable developments.
Recent shifts in rhetoric from former President Donald Trump have been noted. While previously advising Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky against actions that could increase global fuel prices, Trump has more recently commented on Russia's "lost control of its Diesel Oil Industry" due to Ukrainian drone attacks. This change in tone is interpreted by some as a subtle message to Putin, while also highlighting a potential vulnerability for the Kremlin and a reason for the West to perceive a fading Russian resolve.
Trump has also stated that the conflict "must be ended," another phrase seen as significant.
Western Resolve and Support
Putin also has domestic concerns to manage, but convincing him that the West remains steadfast in its support for Ukraine is considered a crucial element for achieving peace. Recent actions by the United States, including a $2.7 billion arms sale to Ukraine, are viewed as positive steps. Continued European support and the recent passage of sanctions legislation championed by the late Senator Lindsey Graham are also seen as indicators of sustained Western commitment.