Control of the U.S. Congress hangs in the balance as November's midterm elections approach, with a select group of competitive House and Senate races expected to be decisive. Republicans currently hold a trifecta in Washington, controlling the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives, but face a challenging electoral landscape.

A July poll indicated a voter preference for Democratic candidates by over nine points, a slight increase from the previous month. Even former President Donald Trump has expressed concerns about Republican turnout, particularly with his name not appearing on the ballot.

Despite these concerns, Republican fundraising efforts have shown strength both nationally and in key battleground districts, suggesting that voter turnout will be the ultimate factor in determining control of Congress.

Senate Races to Watch

Democrats need to gain at least four seats to secure a majority in the Senate, currently held by Republicans with 53 seats. Several contests are rated as highly competitive by the Cook Political Report.

In North Carolina, former Governor Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R), who previously chaired the Republican National Committee. While Whatley has ties to Trump and GOP donors, Cooper's statewide victories suggest a path to success by focusing on local issues. The seat is rated 'lean Democrat'.

Maine's Senate race features Republican incumbent Susan Collins against state Senate President Troy Jackson (D). Collins faces a difficult re-election in a state with an older electorate. Jackson has also faced controversy. This race is rated a 'toss up'.

Georgia's Senate seat sees incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff defending against Republican challenger Mike Collins. Despite Ossoff being a rising figure in the Democratic party, he faces a challenging map in a state Trump has won. Collins' campaign has been marked by controversies involving his family and advisors. The seat is rated 'lean Democrat'.

In New Hampshire, the race for the seat vacated by Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen is expected to be competitive. Republicans are fielding John Sununu, a prominent figure in state politics, against Democrat Chris Pappas. The seat is rated 'lean Democrat'.

Ohio's Senate race pits incumbent Sherrod Brown (D) against Jon Husted (R). Brown, a long-serving Democrat, faces scrutiny over past statements and policy positions. This contest is rated a 'toss up'.

Republican Congresswoman Ashley Hinson is seeking a statewide Senate seat in Iowa against state lawmaker Josh Turek (D). Iowa leans Republican, but Hinson could be affected by the performance of Democrat Rob Sand in the gubernatorial race. The seat is rated 'lean Republican'.

Michigan presents a 'toss up' race between Progressive insurgent Abdul El-Sayed (D) and former House GOP lawmaker Mike Rogers (R). El-Sayed's primary victory raises questions about his ability to appeal to a broader electorate in the general election.

Texas's Senate race features Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) against state legislator James Talarico (D). Paxton, who has faced impeachment and allegations of misconduct, secured Trump's endorsement. Republican Governor Greg Abbott's re-election bid is expected to boost turnout for Paxton. The seat is rated 'lean Republican'.

Nebraska's Senate seat is expected to remain with Republicans, as incumbent Pete Ricketts (R) faces independent Dan Osborn. Osborn's campaign has been marred by financial and personal controversies. The seat is rated 'likely Republican'.

In Alaska, incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan faces former House lawmaker Mary Peltola (D). Peltola's moderate voting record could pose a challenge to Sullivan. The state's use of ranked-choice voting adds complexity to this 'toss up' race.

House Races to Watch

Republicans currently hold a slim majority in the House, with 218 seats to the Democrats' 212, and four vacancies. Democrats need to flip at least three seats to gain control.

New Jersey's 7th District features incumbent Republican Tom Kean Jr. against former Navy helicopter pilot Rebecca Bennett (D). Kean's extended absence from Washington earlier this year due to undisclosed reasons has drawn scrutiny. This seat is rated a 'toss up'.

Ohio's 7th District race between incumbent Max Miller (R) and Brian Poindexter (D) is complicated by domestic abuse allegations against Miller, which he denies. The seat is rated a 'toss up'.

Pennsylvania's 10th District is a rematch between incumbent Republican Scott Perry and Janelle Stelson (D). Perry won a narrow victory in 2024 in a district that Trump carried. This race is rated a 'toss up'.

In Virginia's 2nd District, Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans faces a rematch with former Representative Elaine Luria (D). Both are Navy veterans competing for a seat with a significant veteran population. The seat is rated a 'toss up'.

New York's 17th District pits Republican incumbent Mike Lawler against veteran Cait Conley (D). Lawler faces scrutiny over his associations and campaign spending, and has acknowledged a past DWI arrest. The seat is rated a 'toss up'.

Ohio's 9th District involves incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur, seeking her 23rd term, against Republican Derek Merrin (R). Merrin narrowly lost to Kaptur in 2024. Kaptur is currently recovering from injuries sustained in a car accident. This seat is rated a 'toss up'.

Michigan's 7th District features freshman Republican Tom Barrett against progressive climate organizer William Lawrence (D). Lawrence has a past felony charge related to activism that was later expunged. The seat is rated a 'toss up'.

Iowa's 1st District pits incumbent Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks against lawyer and former State Representative Christina Bohannan (D). Miller-Meeks, who won her first federal race by a narrow margin, could be impacted by strong Democratic turnout in the gubernatorial race. The seat is rated a 'toss up'.

Texas's 34th District has incumbent Democrat Vicente Gonzalez facing Republican Eric Flores (R) in a redrawn district trending Republican. Flores believes Democratic opposition to Trump's immigration policies is not resonating with voters in the Hispanic-majority region. The seat is rated a 'toss up'.

Nebraska's 2nd District is an open seat following Republican Don Bacon's decision not to seek re-election. Republican Brinker Harding, an Omaha City Councilman, faces Denise Powell (D), a small business owner. The seat is rated 'lean Democrat'.