Key Governor Races to Watch in the Upcoming Midterm Elections
Several closely contested gubernatorial races across the U.S. could shift party control, with some states potentially electing Democratic governors for the first time in decades.
As Election Day approaches, national attention is largely focused on congressional control, but several gubernatorial races are proving to be among the most consequential contests on the ballot. The party holding the White House typically faces challenges in midterm elections, which can lead to shifts in state governments alongside congressional seat losses.
Multiple states could see a change in their governor's office. Ohio, Alaska, and Texas are among the states where voters might elect Democratic governors for the first time in many years. Conversely, Oregon could see a Republican win the governorship, potentially ending a Democratic hold on the office since 1982.
Ohio
The Ohio gubernatorial race gained national attention following a controversial ad released by Republican Vivek Ramaswamy's campaign, referencing personal details of his Democratic opponent, Amy Acton. This race is a departure from expectations, as Republicans had anticipated a favorable outcome in a state won by Donald Trump by 11 points in 2024. With Governor Mike DeWine unable to run due to term limits, Trump's endorsement of Ramaswamy largely consolidated the Republican field.
Ramaswamy now faces a competitive race against Acton, who previously served as the director of the Ohio Department of Health. The Cook Political Report adjusted its rating for the Ohio gubernatorial race from "Lean Republican" to "Toss Up" due to the close contest. Polls indicate a narrow lead for Acton in some surveys, while others show Ramaswamy with a slim advantage. A victory for Acton would mark the first Democratic governor in Ohio in two decades.
Alaska
The Cook Political Report recently shifted its outlook for the Alaska gubernatorial race from "Toss Up" to "Lean Democrat." The incumbent Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy is ineligible to run again due to term limits. The open race features Democratic state legislator Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, who won the open primary, alongside Republicans Bernadette Wilson, Dave Bronson, and Treg Taylor. President Trump has endorsed Wilson.
Kreiss-Tomkins initially finished the primary in the top spot, followed by another Democrat, Tom Begich. However, Begich later withdrew and endorsed Kreiss-Tomkins, which allowed Taylor to secure a general election ballot position. Trump has expressed frustration with the Republican candidates, urging them to unite behind Wilson.
Recent polls suggest Kreiss-Tomkins holds a lead over his opponents. The race is seen as a key opportunity for Democrats to gain the governorship in Alaska.
Texas
Governor Greg Abbott, who won re-election by double digits in 2022, faces what may be his most challenging re-election bid against Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa. Some polls show Abbott with a narrow lead, while others indicate Hinojosa is slightly ahead. This close contest is unusual for Texas politics, according to observers.
A win for Hinojosa would be the first time a Democrat has been elected governor in Texas in over three decades. The race's competitiveness mirrors that of the state's Senate race. Despite the tight polling, the Cook Political Report rates the Texas gubernatorial race as "Lean Republican."
Oregon
In Oregon, Republican state Sen. Christine Drazan is challenging Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek. The race, initially rated "Likely Democrat" by the Cook Political Report, has been adjusted to "Lean Democrat," indicating a potential shift in favor of Republicans. Some polls show Kotek with a narrow lead, while others place Drazan ahead.
The Cook Political Report notes this is one of the few races moving in the Republicans' direction. If Drazan wins, it would be the first Republican governor in Oregon since 1982.
Georgia
Georgia presents one of the nation's tightest gubernatorial contests, classified as a "Toss Up" by the Cook Political Report. With Republican Gov. Brian Kemp unable to run for re-election, the race is between Republican Rick Jackson and Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms, the former mayor of Atlanta. Polls suggest the race is nearly tied, with Jackson holding a slight edge in some surveys.
A victory for Bottoms would represent a significant political shift in Georgia, which has had a Republican governor since 2003. It would also make Georgia the first state to elect a Black woman as governor.
Nevada
In the perennial swing state of Nevada, Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo is facing a challenge from Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford. Polls are divided on the leader, with both candidates seeing slim leads in different surveys. The Cook Political Report rates this race as a "Toss Up."
Wisconsin
The race for Wisconsin governor became an open contest after Democratic Gov. Tony Evers announced he would not seek re-election. The Democratic primary saw Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley emerge as the nominee over progressive Francesca Hong. Crowley is now competing against Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany.
Campaign funding has become a notable issue, with Tiffany's bid largely financed by three billionaires. While the Cook Political Report categorizes this race as a "Toss Up," recent polls indicate Crowley has a small lead over Tiffany.