Key Congressional Races to Watch on Election Night
The balance of power in the House and Senate could be decided by a handful of closely contested races across the country.
The control of Congress hangs in the balance as voters head to the polls, with several key House and Senate races expected to determine which party holds the majority for the remainder of Donald Trump's presidency. Republicans currently hold a slim majority in both chambers, with 53 seats in the Senate and 218 in the House.
Historically, the party in power tends to lose seats during midterm elections. This trend was evident in 2022 when Democrats lost nine House seats, and in 2018 when Republicans saw a significant loss of about 40 seats in the House. Democrats are widely anticipated to gain enough seats to take control of the House, while the Senate remains a toss-up, with many competitive races in states that Trump won in 2024.
Millions of dollars have been poured into a select few races by campaigns, super PACs, and donors.
Key Senate Races
Alaska Senate: Incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan faces Democrat Mary Peltola, a former Alaska Native representative. A complicating factor is the presence of another candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. on the ballot, which Democrats allege is a tactic to confuse voters. Alaska's Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy has ordered an investigation into Peltola's campaign following reports about this situation. Polling indicates a neck-and-neck race between Sullivan and Peltola, with Peltola occasionally holding a narrow lead. Trump carried Alaska by 13 points in 2024, but the race is close enough to warrant a campaign stop by the former president. Alaska's use of ranked-choice voting adds another layer of complexity, and the Justice Department has filed a preemptive lawsuit concerning potential voter confusion.
Iowa Senate: This race to replace outgoing Republican Sen. Joni Ernst has become one of the nation's tightest contests. Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson is running against Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek. Despite Trump winning Iowa by 13 points in 2024, recent polling suggests a true toss-up. Hinson has sought to distance herself from Trump on some issues, while Trump has campaigned alongside her.
Michigan Senate: This open Senate seat has become particularly contentious. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, a physician, is challenging Republican Mike Rogers, a former FBI agent and House member. El-Sayed's primary victory was marked by controversy over his criticism of the war in Gaza, which became a focal point. Prominent Democrats have endorsed and campaigned with El-Sayed. Republicans have attacked El-Sayed's Muslim identity and progressive stances. Recent polls show El-Sayed leading Rogers, though often within the margin of error.
Maine Senate: Incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins is seeking her sixth term in a state that Trump did not win in 2024. She faces Democrat Troy Jackson, a logger. Collins has publicly distanced herself from Trump on policy issues and voted to convict him in his impeachment trial, though she has also supported some of his Supreme Court nominees. Jackson holds a narrow lead in recent polling, with the race widely considered a toss-up.
Ohio Senate: This special election to finish the remainder of a term features former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown against Republican Sen. Jon Husted. Over $200 million has been spent on outside advertising for this race. Despite Ohio's recent Republican lean, polls show Brown leading. He previously served over a decade in the Senate before losing his re-election bid.
Kansas Senate: Kansas has not elected a Democratic Senator since 1932. However, Adam Hamilton, founder of a large Methodist congregation, is challenging incumbent Republican Roger Marshall. Marshall, endorsed by Trump, has faced scrutiny over past lawsuits for unpaid medical bills. Recent polls show Hamilton leading Marshall, prompting increased investment from both campaigns.
Texas Senate: In what may be the most expensive non-presidential race in U.S. history, Democrat James Talarico is challenging Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. Recent polling shows Talarico with a slight edge, though the race is extremely tight.
New Hampshire Senate: Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas is running against former Republican Sen. John Sununu. Despite the well-known Sununu family name in New Hampshire politics, Pappas has maintained a lead in recent polls.
Key House Races
Michigan-07: This race is among the most expensive House contests nationwide. Republican Rep. Tom Barrett faces climate organizer William Lawrence. The district, which has rural and suburban areas, shifted Republican in 2024. More recent polls indicate Lawrence leading Barrett.
Texas-15: This South Texas district, with a large Hispanic electorate, is a key test of Republican gains with Hispanic voters. Republican Monica De La Cruz, who won the district in 2022, is running against Democrat Bobby Pulido, a musician. Some polls show Pulido leading, but the race is rated a toss-up.
Ohio-07: Republican Rep. Max Miller, a former Trump White House aide, is in a competitive race against union worker Brian Poindexter. Domestic abuse allegations against Miller, which he denies, have drawn public comments from Sen. Bernie Moreno, Miller’s former father-in-law. The district has historically voted Republican, and Trump carried it in 2024 by 11 points. This race is also rated a toss-up.