Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton is trailing Democratic challenger James Talarico by three points in the Texas Senate race, according to a new Fox News poll. The survey suggests that divisions within the Republican Party and concerns about Paxton's character are impacting his campaign, despite an endorsement from former President Donald Trump.
Talarico holds a 51% to 48% lead over Paxton among registered voters, a margin within the poll's sampling error. The advantage for Talarico widens to six points among voters who are extremely motivated to vote and extremely interested in the midterm elections. While nearly all Democrats and most independents support Talarico, a notable portion of non-MAGA Republicans, 24%, are backing the Democratic candidate.
Paxton secures support from White evangelical Christians, White men without a college degree, rural voters, regular worship attendees, men, and older voters. Talarico's strongest demographics include Black voters, moderates, voters under 30, Hispanic voters, women, and college graduates.
The poll highlights significant concerns about Paxton's character, with 59% of voters believing he lacks the character to serve as senator, compared to 47% who find Talarico too extreme. This concern is more pronounced among Republicans, with 36% expressing reservations about Paxton's character versus 17% of Democrats concerned about Talarico's extremism.
Despite these dynamics, approximately 80% of supporters for both candidates stated their backing is primarily issue-based rather than personal. However, former President Trump's favorability rating in Texas has flipped from positive to negative, with 45% favorable versus 54% unfavorable, a drop of nine net points since the 2024 election. Paxton's personal rating is also underwater at -6 points (45% favorable, 51% unfavorable), while Talarico holds a positive net rating of +6 points (49% favorable, 43% unfavorable).
Inflation is the top issue for nearly 40% of Texas voters deciding their Senate vote, followed by immigration at 20%. Inflation is also a significant concern for Hispanic voters, with about 40% identifying it as the most important issue and a similar percentage reporting they are falling behind financially. Hispanic voters favor Talarico by 18 points.
In the Texas gubernatorial race, incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott holds a narrow one-point lead over Democrat Gina Hinojosa. Abbott benefits from some crossover support, while Hinojosa leads among extremely motivated and interested voters. Abbott's personal rating is slightly positive at +1 point, while Hinojosa's is +11 points, though nearly 20% of voters are unable to rate her.
Texas has a history of electing Republicans to statewide office, with the last Democratic governor elected in 1990, a Democratic senator in 1988, and a Democratic presidential candidate in 1976. The poll was conducted July 23-27, 2026, with 1,006 Texas registered voters surveyed. The margin of sampling error for the full sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points.