Kemi Badenoch Warns of Snap Election as Polls Suggest Tactical Voting Could Hinder Tories
Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch has urged the Conservative Party to prepare for a general election within months, citing opinion polls that indicate tactical voting could disadvantage the party and potentially lead to a hung parliament.
Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch has warned Conservative Party members to be ready for a general election to be called as early as December, amid concerns that tactical voting could thwart the party's chances and result in a hung parliament.
Badenoch characterized potential political opponents as "gamblers" who might "fancy their chances" in a snap election. Her remarks come as two recent opinion polls suggest that divisions within the right-wing political landscape could lead to a situation where no single party secures a majority.
These polls have fueled calls for an alliance between the Conservative Party and Reform UK to "unite the Right" in anticipation of a potential early election. Conservative peer Stewart Jackson stated that such an accommodation is in the national interest to prevent a "catastrophe of a weak Labour minority government." Jacob Rees-Mogg, a former Cabinet minister, echoed this sentiment, urging the two parties to agree on a strategy where they would withdraw candidates in constituencies where the other party has a stronger chance of defeating Labour.
Speculation about an early election has intensified in Westminster, although Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has publicly denied plans for a snap poll. While an election could theoretically be delayed until summer 2029, some Labour MPs believe that a worsening economic climate might prompt an earlier vote. Government advisers have reportedly debated the timing, with some suggesting that a dip in Reform UK's support and ongoing divisions on the right could offer the current government its best opportunity to secure a majority.
One poll by YouGov, analyzing constituency-level data, predicted that Labour would emerge as the largest party with 241 seats in a snap election scenario. The Conservatives were projected to win 130 seats, with Reform UK in third place with 123 seats. The Liberal Democrats were forecast to gain 71 seats, and the Green Party nine seats, potentially opening the door for a coalition involving Labour, Liberal Democrats, Greens, and nationalist parties.
A separate poll by Survation indicated Labour could secure 272 seats, Reform UK 153, the Conservatives 85, and the Liberal Democrats 69. However, this survey also suggested that tactical voting could reduce Reform UK's seats to 62, potentially boosting Labour's total to 319, just short of an overall majority. Under this scenario, the Conservatives would become the official opposition with 130 seats.
Sources within Reform UK have downplayed the impact of tactical voting, citing difficulties in coordinating such efforts on a national scale. Badenoch herself has expressed disinterest in a pact with Reform UK, stating her focus is on "uniting the country, not just uniting the Right." She cited issues of "character" and past controversies associated with the party as reasons for not pursuing a joint effort. Nigel Farage, a prominent figure in Reform UK, has previously stated his objective is to erode the Conservative Party's electoral presence.
Former Prime Minister Liz Truss commented that calling an early election would be a "mad" decision for the current government.