Kemi Badenoch Sees Poll Bounce Following Inheritance Tax Pledge

Kemi Badenoch appears to have benefited from a surge in support following the Conservative Party conference, with a recent Opinium poll showing a three-point increase for the party. This rise is attributed to her prominent pledge to slash inheritance tax, a move that has resonated with voters and potentially spurred a renewed sense of readiness for a snap general election.

The survey, conducted between Wednesday and Friday of last week, indicated that one-third of the public viewed Badenoch's keynote speech favorably, more than double the 14 percent who held a negative view, though a majority of 54 percent remained undecided. Despite this positive development for the Conservatives, Labour maintained a significant lead in the overall poll, with a 29 percent support.

Reform UK saw a two-point decrease from the previous week, standing at 23 percent. According to Electoral Calculus estimates based on this polling split, such figures could translate to a slim parliamentary majority for Labour, potentially securing them 336 seats, while the Conservatives might gain 114 and Reform 105.

Badenoch herself has communicated to the Mail on Sunday that the Conservative Party must be prepared for an election at any moment, dismissing efforts by Labour leader Andy Burnham to suggest otherwise. Strategists are considering the possibility that Prime Minister will opt for an election during this period of perceived advantage and while the Green Party faces internal turmoil.

The Green Party has experienced a notable decline in public standing, with poll ratings halving this year. This downturn is partly linked to the fallout from a controversial conference motion and the recent failure of Zack Polanski to win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. Polanski's personal approval ratings have also dropped significantly, making him the least popular among main party leaders.

Conservative aides were reportedly on high alert during the Labour conference, anticipating a potential election announcement. Preparations for a general election have been underway since July, with a draft manifesto and a campaign schedule in place. Badenoch stated, "We know there's a battle of ideas coming in British politics and I've instructed the Conservative Party to be ready for an election at any point." She further articulated the choice for voters as "between Conservative plans to get Britain working again and a Labour party that keeps putting up taxes, refuses to cut welfare and won't fund our defence."

James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs at Opinium, commented on the recent political landscape, noting that both Burnham and Badenoch delivered strong speeches, garnered positive media attention, and boosted their parties' vote shares. "Together, the two main parties now have their highest combined share in almost two years," Crouch observed, posing the question of whether this marks a temporary peak for established parties or the start of a sustained trend.