Kemi Badenoch's Conservatives Emerge as Main Opposition Party Again, Overtaking Reform UK in Polls

The Conservative Party has re-established itself as the main opposition in British politics, according to a recent Ipsos poll. This resurgence marks a notable shift from May, when the Reform UK party held a substantial lead. The Ipsos poll shows the Conservatives now ahead of Reform UK by three points, with 35% support compared to Reform's 32%.

This change in the political standing on the right of British politics is attributed, in part, to policy initiatives championed by Kemi Badenoch, including the proposed scrapping of inheritance tax on family homes, plans to build 50,000 new prison places, and efforts to increase youth employment while reducing the benefits bill. These announcements appear to be resonating not only with Conservative supporters but also with a broader electorate.

Analysis of the poll data reveals a significant change in how voters who supported Labour in the 2024 general election perceive the opposition. In May, these voters favored Reform UK by 24 points as the official opposition; now, they show a 13-point lead for the Conservatives. This uptick for the Tories coincides with a challenging period for Reform UK, which has faced scrutiny over donations and a recent scandal involving allegations of racist and sexist remarks made by some of its candidates.

Ipsos director of politics Keiran Pedley noted that voters increasingly perceive clarity in Kemi Badenoch's political message, contributing to her improving ratings. "We're seeing consistently over time people increasingly saying it is clear what Kemi stands for, with her ratings improving over time," Pedley stated. "At the same time, Reform are obviously struggling."

He further elaborated that the period since the local elections has seen Reform UK beset by scandals, while Badenoch has projected an image of stability and clear purpose. "There's a sense of a battle for hearts and minds on the Right of British politics, which it very much looked like Reform had won [by May]. What's changed since the local elections? Reform has had scandal after scandal whereas Kemi has looked like a steady pair of hands, and people know what she stands for," he added.

Lord Hayward, a Conservative peer and polling expert, suggested the poll's findings could be significant, particularly in a multi-party system where positioning as the primary opposition is crucial. He advised caution, noting that the Conservative Party needs to see if this post-conference boost is sustained over the next four to six weeks.

Lord Hayward also indicated that Reform UK's challenges may be linked to a decrease in the salience of immigration as a key issue and a decline in Nigel Farage's popularity, especially among middle-class voters. Concurrently, Badenoch has been able to distance the current Conservative Party from the policies of the previous government.

The Ipsos poll also indicates a growing perception among voters that Badenoch could become prime minister, with her support rising from 24% a year ago to 32%. In contrast, the percentage of voters who believe Farage is likely to enter Number 10 has fallen from 50% in May to 33%.

Badenoch's leadership has been highlighted by her recent keynote conference speech, in which she compared the Conservative Party to Marks & Spencer, emphasizing adaptation and renewal to regain public favor. "Just like M&S, we must learn from our mistakes, win back trust, and make people feel good about our party again," she remarked.

Meanwhile, Reform UK has faced continued challenges, including revelations about racist views expressed by some of its councillors and candidates, and ongoing investigations into Nigel Farage regarding an undeclared donation. One Reform insider suggested that the party's current trajectory could see its poll numbers fall to around 15% as early as next month.

Responding to the latest controversies surrounding Reform, Badenoch stated that these incidents were "yet another example of how Reform has a behavioural problem across the entire organisation." She further commented, "I always say that fish rots from the head, and Nigel Farage, Robert Jenrick and Richard Tice are all under investigation, so it's no surprise the rest of the party is behaving badly."