Polls opened Sunday in Kazakhstan for parliamentary elections that are widely expected to consolidate President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s authority in Central Asia’s largest country. The outcome is anticipated to further strengthen the grip of the ruling pro-presidential Adilet party, with several other parties loyal to Tokayev also projected to gain seats.
Tokayev, who assumed office in 2019, initiated a constitutional overhaul in March. A referendum overwhelmingly supported merging the parliament’s two chambers into a single body, the Kurultai. This reform also granted the president new powers, including the authority to appoint key officials, pending parliamentary approval, and reestablished the vice presidency.
These changes follow a period of significant geopolitical maneuvering for Kazakhstan. Tokayev has navigated a complex path, aiming to maintain a balance between Russia and Western nations amidst international sanctions imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. He has stated that the constitutional reforms are necessary for swift decision-making in a rapidly evolving global landscape.
Further bolstering the president's position, Kazakhstan’s Constitutional Court ruled last month that the amendments effectively reset Tokayev’s previous terms, making him eligible to seek another seven-year term. This comes as the nation faces economic challenges, including 10.2% inflation in February and public discontent over tax increases.
Authorities appear wary of a repeat of the January 2022 unrest, when protests over fuel prices escalated into widespread violence resulting in numerous casualties. Analysts suggest that concentrating power is a strategy to prevent such instability.
Tokayev described the vote as a "truly historic event," stating, "Without a doubt, these elections will be remembered as perhaps the most interesting in our country’s history." He emphasized the need to "firmly and consistently implement our strategy to transform Kazakhstan into a truly developed state" amid global tensions.
The election unfolds against a backdrop of increasing pressure on press freedom. Media organizations have called on Tokayev to withdraw criminal charges against journalists facing house arrest and to enact legislation guaranteeing press freedom. Approximately 10 criminal cases have been initiated against independent journalists and bloggers.
One such case involves Lukpan Akhmedyarov, an independent journalist and host of the YouTube project "Prosto Zhurnalistika" (Simply Journalism). Akhmedyarov reported that a criminal case was opened against him in August, charging him with "disseminating false information" after he published a list of Kazakhstani citizens fighting in Ukraine. He faces a potential prison sentence of up to seven years.
"In the run-up to these parliamentary elections, repression has intensified sharply, with attacks on independent media, cyberattacks, and criminal cases launched against independent journalists and popular bloggers," Akhmedyarov told The Associated Press. "It feels like the authorities want to silence all media outlets they don’t control — everyone they couldn’t reach an agreement with or couldn’t buy off." He also observed that advertisements and posters for the Adilet party dominate the streets of major Kazakhstani cities, making the election's outcome appear predictable.