Two years after her role as the Democratic presidential nominee, former Vice President Kamala Harris is reportedly laying groundwork for a potential 2028 presidential campaign. Her efforts include engaging with early states, meeting with political figures like New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, and consulting with pro-Palestinian organizers. Harris currently leads hypothetical 2028 polls, surpassing figures such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. However, she has remained noncommittal about running and has yet to take definitive stances on key party ideological debates, creating an uncertain outlook regarding both her personal aspirations and the party's willingness to support her.
The perspective from Harris's inner circle frames the 2024 presidential election as an anomaly. This view suggests that the election, in which President Joe Biden withdrew under party pressure with only 107 days to campaign, and faced unprecedented events such as assassination attempts against Donald Trump, does not reflect Harris's inherent viability as a candidate. This argument, however, is often employed by campaigns seeking to attribute losses to external factors rather than the candidate. It is noted that Harris previously ran for the Democratic nomination in 2020, withdrawing in late 2019 before the primary contests began.
Donor Class Ambivalence
Some influential Democratic donors express reservations about a potential Harris candidacy. John Morgan, a significant donor, indicated that financial support might not materialize for Harris in 2028, suggesting she and Newsom could compete for the same donor base in California. Morgan also pointed to the need for a clear break from the Biden administration, describing it as a potential "Bye Bye Biden" moment for donors. He suggested that many donors are hesitant to voice opposition to Harris publicly, fearing accusations of racism within the Democratic Party.
Shifting Demographics and Base Support
A key argument for Harris's potential viability is her continued strong standing with core Democratic constituencies: Black voters and women. Sentiment gathered at a Juneteenth picnic in North Charleston indicated support for her candidacy, with some attendees expressing beliefs that her previous presidential bid was unfairly disadvantaged and emphasizing the need for female leadership. However, deeper conversations revealed nuances, including a generational divide where younger voters question her past record as a prosecutor and her stance on Gaza. Additionally, some men at the picnic expressed a preference for a male candidate, while women advocated for further efforts to elect a female president.
The recurring theme across various opinions is a desire for a "fresh face," whether that means a renewed version of Harris or a completely new candidate. The Black vote, particularly in Southern states, has historically been a crucial consolidating force in Democratic presidential primaries, influencing outcomes for candidates like Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, and Barack Obama. A fragmented Black electorate, divided by age and gender and actively seeking new leadership, poses a significant challenge for Harris. This dynamic suggests a potential departure from the traditional patterns of how the Democratic Party selects its nominees, indicating a more complex and unpredictable 2028 presidential cycle than current polling might suggest. The situation reflects a broader uncertainty within the Democratic Party about its future direction and preferred candidates.