Joey Chestnut, a 17-time champion, is set to defend his title at the 2026 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest on July 4th, but the event's extreme weather forecast could challenge his dominance. Betting odds suggest a potential underperformance from Chestnut, with a projection of under 70.5 hot dogs and buns eaten at -165 odds via DraftKings.
The forecasted temperatures in Brooklyn are expected to climb into the upper 90s, a factor that significantly impacts competitive eating. Extreme heat can dehydrate competitors, slow swallowing speeds, and make buns stale, making it more difficult to consume large quantities. Historically, Chestnut has performed below his best in high temperatures, consuming a personal-low of 54 hot dogs and buns in 96°F weather in 2010. In contrast, he set a record of 76 hot dogs and buns in 2021 when the weather was in the mid-70s.
Last year, Chestnut returned to the contest after a sponsorship dispute that led to his temporary ban in 2024, securing his 17th win. The 2026 contest marks his continued participation following that dispute.
In the absence of Chestnut as a factor, Patrick Bertoletti is the odds-on favorite to win, despite James Webb's strong performance in the 2024 contest where Bertoletti consumed 46.5 hot dogs and buns to Webb's 45.5. Webb, who is second in the Major League Eating rankings behind Chestnut, has achieved record-breaking performances in other eating competitions this season, including consuming 55 Texas sausages and 256 wings.
Another notable matchup in the betting landscape involves Gideon Oji and Radim Dvořáček. Oji, ranked ninth in MLE, has a more consistent record in hot dog eating contests, exceeding 31 hot dogs and buns in eight of his ten career appearances. Dvořáček, ranked 12th, has consumed fewer hot dogs and buns in his two appearances at the Nathan's contest, with 23 in 2024 and 30.5 in the previous year. Oji also secured a win in the 2026 National Sweet Corn Eating Championship, while Dvořáček has not recorded a win this season.
The Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest, a tradition dating back to 1916, is a cornerstone of Fourth of July celebrations in Coney Island, Brooklyn. This year's event, however, is shaped by the prevailing weather conditions, influencing not only the competitors' performance but also the betting strategies surrounding the spectacle.