Vice President JD Vance may announce his intentions to run for president in 2028 as early as after the upcoming November midterm elections, according to insiders close to the Vice President. These sources suggest that Vance's primary rival for the Republican nomination, Senator Marco Rubio, will not challenge him, citing Vance's surging poll numbers and Rubio's declining support.
A recent poll conducted for the Daily Mail by JL Partners indicates Vance leads Republican primary voters with 51 percent, a four-point increase from the previous month, while Rubio has fallen to 15 percent. In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, Vance would defeat Rubio 65 percent to 26 percent. Other potential contenders, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Senator Ted Cruz, polled at nine percent and six percent, respectively.
This polling data aligns with a Navigator Research survey that showed Vance's net favorability rating among Republicans at 62 percent, significantly higher than Rubio's 51 percent. Vance's increased visibility, including his participation in Iran peace deal negotiations and numerous interviews promoting his new book, "Communion: Finding My Way Back To Faith," are seen as contributing factors to his rising profile. Supporters note that former President Donald Trump has reportedly been impressed by Vance's media appearances and the book's sales figures.
Vance's stance on de-escalating the conflict with Iran, contrasted with the pro-Israel stance favored by some of Rubio's supporters, may also be advantageous with Trump, who is described as favoring candidates he believes can win. Vance has reportedly benefited from Trump's perception of him as a potential winner for the 2028 election.
However, Vance faces significant hurdles in a general election. Historically, only one sitting Vice President, George H.W. Bush, has won the presidency in 190 years, doing so under a president with a 63 percent approval rating. Trump's current approval rating is in the low 40s, and Vance's own favorability ratings range from 36 to 41 percent, with up to 56 percent viewing him unfavorably. Vance's past criticisms of Trump and his shifting public stances on various issues, along with perceived antagonism from women voters due to past remarks, are cited as potential challenges.
Despite Vance's popularity surge, Trump reportedly desires a competitive primary contest and maintains a strong personal relationship with Rubio, enjoying a camaraderie that is less apparent with the younger Vance. Sources indicate Trump may delay endorsing a candidate to remain a central figure in the political discourse.
Vance's camp asserts that Rubio is not preparing for a presidential run, pointing to a lack of established campaign infrastructure, including state party leaders, digital operations, and ground game. Vance, conversely, is expected to inherit Trump's donor network and possesses his own established fundraising apparatus.
The two senators have maintained a close relationship since their time in the Senate, with Vance referring to Rubio as his "best friend in the administration." Some Republicans envision a scenario where Rubio could serve as Vance's vice-presidential running mate, a possibility previously floated by Trump. However, other sources within Vance's camp dismiss Rubio's presidential prospects, calling him a "ridiculous candidate" unable to navigate the demands of a national campaign while serving as Secretary of State.
While Vance's camp is confident in his position, they anticipate competition in the 2028 primary from other Republicans, including Senators Rand Paul and Ted Cruz. Cruz, in particular, is seen as a potential challenger, leveraging his fundraising abilities and connections to donors, especially those supportive of Israel. Vance, however, believes Cruz will not perform better than in his 2016 bid.
Vance's current political standing is a notable shift from his previous criticisms of Trump, whom he once described as "reprehensible" and an "idiot." His alignment with the MAGA base has solidified, aided by figures like Donald Trump Jr. and venture capitalist Peter Thiel, who supported Vance's 2022 Senate campaign. Vance's academic background, including his achievements at Yale Law School, also reportedly impressed Trump.
His role as Vice President has seen him adopt an assertive public persona, including sharp exchanges with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. This has solidified his support among MAGA Republicans. Vance's memoir, "Hillbilly Elegy," which detailed his upbringing, resonated with working-class voters and contributed to his political ascent.
Even Democrats have acknowledged Vance's improved public communication skills, with CNN commentators praising his "glow up" and performance in interviews. His book also touches upon his religious journey, including accounts of seemingly miraculous events.
Officially, Vance's spokesperson stated his sole focus is on his duties as Vice President serving under President Trump. Despite the uncertainties and potential challenges, Vance's camp believes he has a clear path to the Republican nomination, with Senator Rubio not expected to be a significant obstacle.