Pulitzer Prize-winning historian Jared Diamond has delved into the complex question of what constitutes greatness, examining whether exceptional individuals shape history or are merely products of their time. In his analysis, Diamond explores the "Great Man theory," which posits that history is driven by extraordinary leaders, and contrasts it with the view that circumstances largely dictate events. He proposes a middle ground: that individuals can sometimes make a significant difference, while at other times their impact is limited.
Diamond employs what he calls the 'Hamlet test' to assess individual impact. He questions whether, if a historical figure like William Shakespeare had died prematurely, another contemporary could have produced work of similar caliber. By 1599, Shakespeare had already authored numerous masterpieces. Diamond argues that playwrights of his era, such as Ben Jonson and Christopher Marlowe, could not have matched the unique richness and complexity of plays like Hamlet, suggesting Shakespeare's singular talent was indispensable.
Applying this framework to modern figures, Diamond considers Mark Zuckerberg and the development of social media. While acknowledging that social media platforms existed before Facebook, he suggests that Zuckerberg's distinctive personality influenced the specific trajectory of social media's evolution.
The book also examines the meteoric rise of Jeff Bezos and Amazon. Bezos, an early hire at DE Shaw, a pioneering hedge fund that utilized computer modeling, was tasked with investigating internet business opportunities in the mid-1990s. Fascinated by the exponential growth of internet usage, Bezos envisioned an 'everything store.' He left DE Shaw to found Amazon, launching it with personal funds and investments. Today, Amazon is valued in the trillions.
Diamond attributes Amazon's success not solely to leadership but to a confluence of factors, including Bezos's exceptional attention to detail, his prioritization of customer satisfaction over immediate profits, his risk-taking nature, and his ability to maintain control over the company. While many individuals might share some of these traits, Diamond suggests Bezos uniquely seized the opportune moment.
Beyond business and the arts, Diamond investigates the influence of circumstance on historical conquerors, using Genghis Khan as an example. While acknowledging Genghis Khan's military and administrative genius, Diamond points to the environmental conditions of his time. The unusually wet decades on the steppes during Genghis Khan's rise led to increased animal populations and, consequently, a larger Mongol population ready for conquest. Diamond posits that while Genghis Khan was brilliant, his success was also contingent on being born at the right time.
Another case study is Seretse Khama, the founding president of Botswana. Diamond highlights Khama's unique position as an educated leader who could bridge Western and traditional African societies. When Botswana discovered vast diamond reserves in 1967, Khama leveraged his influence to ensure the wealth benefited the entire nation, establishing a long-term investment fund and a robust civil service. His cautious approach to neighboring African governments and his ability to manage the newfound wealth made him the right person in the right place at the right time to transform Botswana into a prosperous country.
Diamond also explores the growth of Christianity, attributing its global dominance to the charismatic Prophet Jesus, whose teachings focused on human behavior, and to the Apostle Paul, who organized and expanded the religion beyond its Jewish origins to include Gentiles. The widespread literacy of the Roman Empire and Emperor Constantine's eventual adoption of Christianity further contributed to its ascendancy.
Diamond's work, characterized by its readability and broad scope, navigates these complex historical and sociological questions, offering a nuanced perspective on the interplay of individual agency and situational factors in shaping history. His book, "Profits, Prophets, Coaches and Kings," is available now.