Pulitzer Prize-winning historian Jared Diamond is examining the factors that contribute to greatness, questioning whether exceptional individuals truly shape history or are merely products of their circumstances. His latest exploration delves into the lives of figures such as Jeff Bezos, William Shakespeare, and Genghis Khan to explore the validity of the "Great Man theory."
Diamond posits a middle view: sometimes individuals make a significant difference, and sometimes they do not. To assess this, he employs the "Hamlet test," considering whether another playwright could have replicated Shakespeare's masterpiece if he had died young. Diamond argues that Shakespeare's prolific output before his contemporaries suggests his unique genius was essential to creating such works.
Applying a similar approach to Jeff Bezos, Diamond notes that while social media existed before Facebook, Bezos's distinctive personality and vision were instrumental in shaping its development. Bezos's journey began at DE Shaw, a hedge fund where he was tasked with exploring internet business opportunities. Inspired by the internet's rapid growth, he envisioned an "everything store" and founded Amazon, which grew from an initial investment into a company now valued at trillions.
Diamond attributes Amazon's success not solely to leadership but also to specific traits Bezos possessed: meticulous attention to detail, prioritizing customer satisfaction over immediate profits, a relentless risk-taking nature, and maintaining control over the company. While many individuals might share some of these qualities, Diamond suggests that Bezos uniquely capitalized on the opportunity.
Circumstance and Genius
The influence of environment on historical figures is further illustrated by Genghis Khan. Diamond acknowledges Khan's military and administrative genius but suggests that his success was also heavily influenced by environmental factors. The wettest decades on the steppes during Khan's rise facilitated animal husbandry, providing the resources for his conquests. Diamond implies that Khan's brilliance, though undeniable, might not have manifested in the same way had he been born at a different time.
Another case examined is Seretse Khama, the founding president of Botswana. Diamond highlights Khama's ability to bridge Western and traditional African societies, coupled with his administrative skills. The discovery of vast diamond reserves in Botswana in 1967, during Khama's leadership, allowed him to establish a national investment fund and build an efficient civil service, transforming the nation from poverty to prosperity. Diamond posits that Khama was the right person in the right place at the right time to guide Botswana's development.
Diamond also touches upon the rise of Christianity, attributing its success to Jesus's teachings and the organizational efforts of the Apostle Paul, who expanded the religion's reach beyond Jewish communities. The widespread literacy in the Roman Empire and Emperor Constantine's adoption of Christianity further contributed to its global dominance. Diamond's analysis suggests that while charismatic leaders and effective organizers are crucial, the broader societal and environmental context plays an equally significant role in the trajectory of history.