Japan's government stated Tuesday that the nation must adapt to new warfare methods, such as drones and artificial intelligence, observed in conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and concurrently strengthen its defense industry.
This directive comes as Japan has increased its military capabilities and spending in recent years, including the deployment of long-range cruise missiles, as a deterrent against China's military activities. A recently adopted 598-page defense paper reiterates that China represents Japan's most significant strategic challenge, with Tokyo expressing alarm over the increasing presence and frequency of Chinese warships in the Pacific Ocean.
Inspired by Ukraine's use of drones, the defense paper emphasizes the necessity for Japan to adapt to "new ways of warfare." With numerous countries actively developing combat drones, Japan's government has made the development of its own drone technology for coastal defense a priority, to be used in conjunction with long-range missiles.
"Speed is key," stated Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi in early July. The Acquisition, Technology and Logistics Agency has initiated a rapid development program, selecting four drone manufacturers from an initial pool of 38 applicants. These selected companies are slated to proceed to testing by Japan's navy in early August, with a final selection to follow. Several companies are independently pursuing similar drone developments; Toshiba announced plans on Friday to jointly develop combat drones with the startup Pro Drone.
Combat drones could potentially help Japan offset the declining number of service members, a consequence of the country's shrinking population. However, experts note that developing entirely domestic drones presents a challenge, given that Japan's commercial drone market is currently dominated by Chinese imports.
Japan has been bolstering its military presence on its southwestern islands and deploying long-range cruise missiles amid concerns over a potential conflict involving Taiwan, which China claims as its territory. The defense paper specifically highlights the growing presence and activity of Chinese warships in the Pacific as a major concern. The Defense Ministry has established a dedicated unit to study Japan's Pacific strategy and enhance its defenses against China.
The paper further asserts that China has consistently increased its military spending without transparency, rapidly expanding its nuclear and missile capabilities. It also notes an incident in December where Chinese aircraft reportedly locked their radars onto Japanese planes during Chinese aircraft carrier drills near southwestern Japan, which is considered a possible precursor to missile firing.
Concerns have also been raised by China's growing joint military operations with Russia in the vicinity of Japan, including joint bomber and warship activities. Additionally, North Korea's rapid missile development, encompassing hypersonic arsenals, is described as an "increasingly serious and pressing threat," with its escalating military ties with Russia and support for Moscow's war in Ukraine also posing grave concerns.
Strengthening arms production and technological innovation is deemed essential for Japan's military power, leading the government to expand funding for startups and scientific research. While many established Japanese companies have traditionally avoided involvement with lethal weapons due to the nation's post-World War II pacifist constitution, a growing number of startups are reportedly exploring the conversion of dual-use technology for military applications. Japan's recent relaxation of its ban on lethal weapons exports could also contribute to the revitalization of its defense industry. Defense Minister Koizumi has indicated that weapons technology transfer, joint development, and production can enhance both Japan's defense industrial base and its relationships with defense partners.
Japan has recently secured significant defense deals, including the joint development and transfer of 11 upgraded Mogami-class frigates to Australia. Discussions are reportedly underway for a similar agreement with New Zealand, and a deal has been struck to sell retired destroyers to the Philippines.