The resignation of Jacinta Allan as Premier of Victoria has significantly altered the state's political dynamics, potentially improving the Labor Party's prospects in the upcoming November election. The Liberals had largely based their campaign strategy on highlighting Allan's perceived failures and the government's record on debt, infrastructure, and services. Her departure removes what some analysts described as their most valuable campaign asset.
Peter van Onselen, writing for the Daily Mail, suggests that Allan's resignation, while a blow to Labor, has inadvertently given the party a more viable path forward by introducing a new leader, Ben Carroll. The campaign, which was shaping up to be a referendum on Allan's and former Premier Dan Andrews' legacies, is now transitioning into a contest against a leader who may be perceived as more capable and adaptable.
Carroll has moved to address issues that plagued the previous administration. His government has initiated a royal commission into the construction sector, appointed a special prosecutor, granted stronger powers to the anti-corruption watchdog, and proposed the abolition of group voting tickets for the upper house. These measures signal a repudiation of aspects of the government Carroll has inherited, and are seen by some as a political strategy to acknowledge public anger while claiming credit for reform.
This approach, however, raises questions about why these reforms were not implemented earlier under Allan's or Andrews' leadership. Carroll, having served as Allan's deputy and been a cabinet member since Andrews' premiership, faces scrutiny regarding his prior inaction.
Ben Carroll presents a new challenge for Liberals.
Carroll is considered a more adept political communicator than Allan and is seen as less aligned with the dominant Left faction of the Labor Party, potentially allowing him to speak with greater credibility on issues of integrity, crime, and financial discipline, despite his past record. The Liberals' challenge is to differentiate between a superficial change in presentation and substantive policy reform.
Specifically, the Liberals are urged to establish clear conditions for the royal commission, ensuring its independence and broad scope to investigate political decisions. They are also tasked with pressing Carroll on concrete plans for debt reduction, tax reform, and improvements in public services like hospitals and schools, to determine if his leadership signifies a genuine change or merely a new sales approach.
Daily Mail Political Editor Peter van Onselen (pictured) says Jacinta Allan's resignation actually gives Labor a fighting chance.
For the Liberal Party, led by Jess Wilson, the strategy needs to move beyond simply highlighting Labor's past failures. Wilson is credited with bringing urgency to the party, but she must now present a compelling case for her side's readiness to govern, offering optimistic solutions alongside a credible plan for the state's repair. Meanwhile, her colleagues are expected to hold Carroll accountable for collective cabinet responsibility.
The presence of One Nation in the political landscape adds another layer of complexity. The Liberals risk surrendering their image of competence if they adopt a purely protest-based approach, mirroring One Nation's strategy without the luxury of not having to demonstrate governing capability. Carroll's strategy appears to be one of adopting opposition policies to blur the electoral choice, presenting his leadership as a controlled renovation of the existing government rather than a wholesale overhaul that could be perceived as risky, especially with the potential of a coalition government including One Nation.