Israeli Election Results Show No Clear Winner, Exit Polls Indicate

Exit polls from Israel's pivotal general election indicate no clear winner, with projections showing a near tie between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his main challenger, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot. Neither leader appears poised to secure a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.

Two Israeli broadcasters projected that Eisenkot's Yashar party and three other opposition parties in his "Change Bloc" would win 51 seats, matching the 51 seats projected for Netanyahu's Likud party and its far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies. A third broadcaster's poll gave Netanyahu a lead of three seats. Official results are expected to be published overnight, with a significant portion of votes, including absentee ballots from military personnel, to be fully counted by Thursday.

The high voter turnout, the highest at 22:00 local time since 1999, stood at 77.7%, according to the Central Elections Committee.

Supporters of Eisenkot's Yashar party celebrated initial projections that showed his bloc as the largest in the Knesset. Yair Lapid, an ally of Eisenkot, declared Netanyahu's bloc had suffered a "crushing defeat." However, at Netanyahu's Likud party headquarters, supporters expressed nervousness, with one telling the BBC, "It's not over until it's over, but I'm sweating." Netanyahu's allies suggested that celebrations on the left were premature.

In the early hours of Wednesday, updated exit poll projections showed the blocs tied at 51 seats, with one poll giving Netanyahu's bloc a slight edge of 52 seats to Eisenkot's 49. Later, Netanyahu declared at his party headquarters that his right-wing bloc had achieved a "great majority" and called for the formation of a "strong, right-wing national government."

A crucial factor in the final outcome could be the performance of the two Arab parties, the United Arab List and the Joint List, which were projected to win a record number of seats, potentially 18 or 19. These parties could emerge as kingmakers, although only one has openly indicated a willingness to work with them in government.

This election comes in the context of the ongoing conflicts following the deadly Hamas-led attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, and subsequent regional wars. The vote is seen by many Israelis as highly consequential, with potential to shape the country's leadership and its trajectory on hard-line, religious-nationalist policies. Key campaign issues included accountability for the security failures leading up to the October 7 attacks, the conduct of regional wars, military service burdens, judicial reforms, and Israel's international standing.

The process of forming a governing coalition could take weeks, after which Israel's president will invite the party leader deemed most capable of forming a government. Failure to form a coalition could lead to another election.