Preliminary election results in Israel indicate a complex political landscape, with neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party nor his main rival, former army chief Gadi Eisenkot, appearing poised to secure a decisive parliamentary majority. The outcome suggests a potential stalemate, with Arab-majority parties emerging as crucial kingmakers.
Turnout for the election was high, exceeding 77%, signaling significant public engagement. However, the fragmented nature of Israel's political system means that even the largest single party may struggle to form a governing coalition. Early counts, which are subject to change as absentee ballots—including those from soldiers—are tallied, have shown Netanyahu's bloc of ultra-nationalist and ultra-Orthodox parties falling just short of the 61-seat majority needed in the 120-seat Knesset.
Similarly, Gadi Eisenkot's bloc appears unlikely to command a majority without the backing of parties representing Israel's Arab minority, who constitute one-fifth of the population. These Arab-led parties have equaled or increased their seat count in the current partial results. Historically, many Jewish opposition parties have pledged not to collaborate with Arab-majority lists due to perceived differences in values. However, their significant gains in this election could compel a shift in alliances.
Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot addressed supporters overnight, each vowing to form the next government. Netanyahu emphasized a "clear, decisive majority" for the right-wing bloc among the "Zionist public, among the Jewish public," though he stopped short of a victory declaration. He called for the formation of a "strong, national, right-wing government."
Eisenkot declared that "the public has chosen change" and that the "coalition of failure has lost the people's trust." He stated his intention to work with partners to translate the public's decision into a "stable and good" government for all Israeli citizens, stressing the need for national unity.
The election has underscored deep divisions within Israeli society, serving not only as a referendum on Netanyahu's leadership amid a corruption trial he denies, but also on the future identity of Israel. The Prime Minister and his current coalition have steered the country on a hardline religious and nationalist path over the past four years, a trajectory that has faced significant opposition and protests, particularly concerning plans for judicial overhaul prior to the October 7, 2023, attacks.
Despite the turbulent events of the past four years, including subsequent conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran, voting patterns appear to have remained largely consistent. Political analysts note that the proportion of support for pro-Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu blocs has remained similar, defying expectations that the aftermath of the October 7 attacks might significantly alter electoral outcomes.
The process of coalition formation, which begins immediately after final results are presented to President Isaac Herzog, is expected to be intense. Political maneuvering, including attempts to sway smaller parties with promises of cabinet posts and policy concessions, is anticipated. A critical question is whether the main opposition "change bloc" will overcome taboos and consider alliances with Arab parties. Some figures, like right-wing politician Avigdor Lieberman, have previously stated they would not join a minority government reliant on Arab support, reflecting increased mistrust towards Arab citizens following recent events.
Mansour Abbas, leader of the Ra'am party, one of the Arab lists, expressed his desire to join the next government, drawing on his experience in a previous diverse coalition. He suggested that post-election, potential partners might be more open to alliances, noting that politicians often express different sentiments before and after elections.
Netanyahu and his allies have reportedly initiated efforts to delegitimize Arab parties, framing them as an internal threat. The process of government formation grants the President the authority to task a candidate with forming a coalition. If that candidate fails within six weeks, other candidates may be given a chance. Should no coalition be formed after extensive negotiations, new elections could be called.
In the interim, Netanyahu's government will continue in a caretaker capacity, but with limited authority to enact significant policy changes.