Israeli Election Polls Show Deadlock Between Netanyahu and Rival

Israel's general election, the first since the October 7, 2023, attacks, is headed for a potential deadlock, according to initial exit poll results. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his main rival, Gadi Eisenkot, both claimed to be in a position to lead the country, even as projections suggested no clear winner would emerge.

As of Wednesday morning, with approximately 48.4 percent of votes tallied, preliminary results showed Netanyahu's bloc projected to win 55 seats and Eisenkot's bloc securing 50 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. An additional 15 seats were projected for Arab parties. These figures leave both blocs short of the 61 seats required for a majority, necessitating prolonged coalition negotiations.

The Central Elections Committee began its vote tallying on Wednesday, with definitive results not expected until Thursday. Voter turnout reached 77.7 percent, the highest in over two decades and a significant increase from the 2022 election.

Netanyahu, addressing supporters late Tuesday, called for the formation of a "strong, right-wing national government." He also referenced potential joint action with U.S. President Donald Trump against Iran, stating, "Israel faces a singular historical opportunity, together with our partner President Trump, to remove the existential threat of Iran once and for all." Trump, who had endorsed Netanyahu, commented that the election was "pretty close" and that his endorsement "helped him a lot."

Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party and a former military chief, asserted that voters had rejected Netanyahu's continued leadership and urged him to retire from politics. Eisenkot warned against prioritizing political interests over national security, stating, "Netanyahu is a caretaker prime minister, without a mandate or the people's trust."

While the projections represent a potential setback for Netanyahu's nationalist-religious coalition, a deadlock could allow him to remain in office as a caretaker prime minister during coalition formation. Netanyahu's bloc has stated it will not form a government with Arab parties, which had campaigned on unseating the prime minister. Eisenkot has also largely ruled out governing with Arab parties, complicating his path to power.

Far-right religious parties led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich were projected to win a combined 13 seats within Netanyahu's bloc. Eisenkot, who lost family members in the Gaza war, entered politics four years ago and briefly served in Netanyahu's war cabinet after the October 7 attacks before resigning over leadership criticisms. He advocates for a strong security stance but offers a departure from Netanyahu's current coalition.

The headquarters of the Joint List, an alliance of Arab parties, saw celebrations for a historic night of turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel. Candidates expressed hope that their increased representation could play a role in blocking Netanyahu's coalition.

Israel's political system, characterized by fragmentation, often leads to protracted coalition negotiations. The uncertainty of the election results had a modest weakening effect on the Israeli shekel. Netanyahu, who has served as prime minister for nearly 19 of the last 30 years, faces ongoing corruption charges, which he denies, and criticism regarding intelligence failures preceding the October 7 attacks.