Israeli Arab Parties Hold Potential Sway in Upcoming Election
With major blocs projected to fall short of a majority, smaller parties, particularly Arab parties, may become kingmakers.
Israel's general elections next week could see Arab parties playing a pivotal role in determining the next government, as polls indicate both the bloc supporting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot are projected to fall short of the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.
Nearly all pre-election surveys suggest that Netanyahu's Likud party and Eisenkot's Change coalition will each secure around 50 seats, necessitating alliances with smaller parties to form a government. The Joint Arab List and the United Arab List are predicted to win at least 13 seats combined, positioning them as potential coalition partners.
However, opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot and other opposition parties have publicly stated they will not form alliances with Arab parties. Thair Abu Ras, a researcher at the Van Leer Jerusalem Institute, noted during a recent Brookings Institute discussion that the Arab minority, which constitutes 20% of Israel's population, is expected to have a high voter turnout to voice concerns about their community's needs.
Unlike Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza, Israeli Arabs are full citizens of Israel and are represented in the Knesset. Historically, Arab parties have largely avoided coalition politics. However, they may now consider "ad-hoc cooperation" with Eisenkot's Change coalition on specific issues.
Such cooperation could focus on areas of common ground, including efforts to counter Netanyahu's proposed judicial reforms that would diminish the power of the Supreme Court and the establishment of term limits for lawmakers. Arab parties are also likely to advocate for increased attention to rising organized crime and violence in Arab-majority neighborhoods, issues they argue have been neglected.
Dahlia Scheindlin, a pollster and senior analyst for the Haaretz newspaper, observed that relations between the Israeli public and Arab citizens reached a low point following the October 7, 2023, attacks, despite Arab Israelis also being victims of Hamas. Despite past pledges, Scheindlin predicts that Eisenkot may be compelled to reconsider his stance and cooperate with Arab parties to unseat Netanyahu, a sentiment echoed in polls suggesting a majority of respondents believe such a coalition is likely.