A week after Israel's national election, the country faces a political stalemate, with neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his opponents securing the necessary 61 parliamentary seats to form a government. The outcome now hinges significantly on the Arab citizens of Israel, whose parties have achieved unprecedented leverage due to a historic surge in voter turnout.
These Arab citizens, numbering around 900,000, are distinct from the approximately 5.5 million Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza, who are not Israeli citizens and cannot vote in national elections. While the war in Gaza has become a point of contention in American politics, the recent Israeli election was largely perceived as a referendum on Prime Netanyahu himself. His right-wing and religious coalition saw its seat count drop from 64 in 2022 to 53, while opposition parties collectively gained 67 seats.
Crucially, 19 of these opposition seats were won by two Arab parties, Ra'am and the Joint List, marking the highest number of seats ever held by Arab parties in Israel's Knesset, a significant increase from the 10 seats they held previously. This electoral success for Arab parties was partly driven by widespread dissatisfaction with Netanyahu's right-wing government. Concerns over public safety, particularly a crime wave in Arab towns under the purview of National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, and the freezing of funds to Arab municipalities by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, motivated many Arab voters.
However, forming a governing coalition that includes Arab parties remains a significant hurdle. Many Israeli Jewish parties have historically shunned such alliances, and Netanyahu campaigned by labeling Arab parties as supporters of terrorism. While most voters in the opposition's "change bloc" appear open to a government that relies on Arab votes, either directly in the coalition or through external support, their leaders have expressed caution. This caution stems partly from a general opposition among Jewish Israelis to Arab-Jewish coalitions and concerns about electoral consequences.
Gadi Eisenkot, a former army chief and leader of the centrist "change bloc," faces the primary challenge of uniting disparate parties. His conditions for joining a coalition include recognizing Israel as a Jewish and democratic state and Hamas as a terrorist group. While some Arab leaders have signaled a willingness to compromise on certain demands to facilitate a government change, the declaration of Hamas as a terrorist organization remains a sensitive point for some, given security concerns and past threats.
The potential formation of a Jewish-Arab coalition carries significant implications. Supporters view it as a vital step toward a more inclusive and democratic Israel, granting Arab citizens a meaningful voice in governance. Conversely, critics, including those in the Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions (BDS) movement, see engagement with any Israeli government as legitimizing a state they deem illegitimate. The outcome of these coalition talks will not only determine who governs Israel but also influence its relationship with allies abroad and its approach to the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict.