Israel Heads Into Divisive Election Amid Reckoning for Oct. 7 Attacks

Israel is heading into a deeply divided election on Tuesday, with the upcoming vote largely seen as a referendum on accountability for the failures that allowed Hamas terrorists to carry out the Oct. 7, 2023, massacre. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has dominated Israeli politics for decades, faces intense scrutiny as the country grapples with the aftermath of the deadliest attack in its history.

Netanyahu has resisted calls to accept personal responsibility for the security lapses and has opposed the establishment of an independent state commission of inquiry. Instead, his government has proposed a politically appointed investigation, a move fiercely opposed by many bereaved families.

The divisions that predate the Oct. 7 attacks have only deepened. In the months leading up to the massacre, widespread protests against Netanyahu's proposed judicial overhaul saw hundreds of thousands of Israelis take to the streets. These protests extended into the military, with reservists threatening to suspend volunteer service, raising concerns about Israel's preparedness. Some critics have suggested that this internal turmoil projected an image of weakness to the country's adversaries, though the extent to which it influenced Hamas's decision to attack remains a subject of debate.

The current election campaign has become intensely personal for many Israelis, straining friendships and dividing families. The national discourse has largely coalesced around a single question: Are citizens for or against Netanyahu, often referred to as "Bibi"?

For some families who lost loved ones on Oct. 7, the answer is definitive. Shir Shai, whose brother Yaron Shai was killed in the fighting, has urged voters not to support Netanyahu if they wish to honor the fallen. "If you nevertheless decide to vote again for the man who brought disaster upon us and his accomplices, I have one personal request: Don't come here anymore," she stated at her brother's memorial. "You still have 20 days to be part of the process of putting things right. But if you choose to perpetuate the failure rather than honor the fallen, it would be better if you stayed home next year."

Conversely, other bereaved families credit Netanyahu with maintaining a strong stance during conflicts on multiple fronts. They argue that the primary responsibility for failing to anticipate the Hamas assault lies with the military and intelligence establishment.

The polarized atmosphere has been further intensified by a bitter campaign. Days before the election, Netanyahu shared an AI-generated image depicting a nuclear explosion over Tel Aviv, warning of the existential threat posed by Iran if Israel elected a leader unable to confront Tehran.

Concerns extend beyond the election results, with Israeli police preparing for potential unrest and experts cautioning about possible disputes over the legitimacy of the outcome, drawing parallels to the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.

Israel utilizes a parliamentary system where voters elect a party, not an individual prime minister. The Knesset, or parliament, has 120 seats allocated through nationwide proportional representation based on party lists. A party must secure at least 3.25% of the valid votes to gain representation.

Polling stations are scheduled to open on Tuesday, Oct. 27, from 7 a.m. to 10 p.m. local time. Exit polls are expected shortly after polls close, with preliminary results emerging over the following days. The Central Elections Committee has set Nov. 4 as the date for the official publication of results.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, 77, leads the Likud party. His main challenger is Gadi Eisenkot, 66, a former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces and leader of the centrist Yashar party. Other notable figures include former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and former Prime Minister Yair Lapid, running on a joint ticket, as well as Avigdor Lieberman, Yair Golan, Itamar Ben-Gvir, and Bezalel Smotrich. Arab political parties like Ra'am and the Joint List may also influence the final parliamentary balance.

Securing a majority of 61 seats in the Knesset is crucial for forming a government, a feat no single party has achieved alone. This necessitates coalition building, and the leader most likely to assemble a coalition is typically tasked by President Isaac Herzog with forming the government. This process has historically taken between 20 and 100 days.

This election is particularly consequential as it is the first national vote since the Oct. 7 attacks, which initiated the war in Gaza and raised critical questions about Israel's security leadership. The incoming government will face significant decisions regarding national security, the future of Gaza, military conscription, and relations with the United States and regional partners.

With pre-election polls indicating no clear majority for either major political bloc, the final outcome and the formation of a government could remain uncertain for weeks.