Israel Election Results Could Take Weeks Amid Coalition Talks

Polling stations in Israel closed Tuesday evening, but the final determination of who will lead the country as prime minister could take weeks or even months. This extended timeline is a consequence of Israel's parliamentary system, where voters elect parties rather than individual candidates, making coalition building a necessity.

Exit polls released shortly after voting concluded offered an initial indication of the results, but official tallies will determine the final seat distribution in the Knesset, Israel's parliament. Projections suggest that neither Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc nor that of his main opponent, retired General Gadi Eisenkot, is expected to secure the 61 seats needed for an outright majority.

Coalition Negotiations

Should no coalition achieve a clear majority, the focus will shift to intensive negotiations and bargaining among party leaders. The largely ceremonial president, Isaac Herzog, will consult with all party leaders and task the individual deemed most capable of forming a coalition to do so. If that candidate fails to assemble a majority within a six-week maximum, the mandate could pass to another.

Smaller parties often wield significant influence in these negotiations, capable of providing the crucial votes needed to form a government. Leaders of larger parties typically aim to secure support through promises of cabinet positions, budget allocations, or specific policy concessions.

Potential Role of Arab-led Parties

This election cycle could potentially see Arab-led parties play a decisive role. Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have publicly ruled out direct partnership with them. However, these parties could enable Eisenkot to form a minority government by offering external support or abstaining from the vote to seat a new government.

If, after all negotiation attempts, no majority can be formed, Israel would face another election in the coming months. During this period, Netanyahu's government would continue to serve as a caretaker administration. While public services would remain unaffected, a caretaker government lacks the authority to implement major policy changes. The possibility exists that even another election may not resolve the political stalemate, as evidenced by the nation holding five national elections in the preceding 3½ years before the November 2022 vote.