Israel Election: Netanyahu's Likud Leads, But Majority Eludes in Post-Oct. 7 Vote

Israelis turned out in record numbers for the country's first national election since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas massacre, with initial exit polls indicating Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party emerging as the largest but falling short of a parliamentary majority. The projections suggest the potential for significant political shifts.

Initial exit polls released by Israel’s three major television networks after polls closed Tuesday showed Likud winning approximately 25 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. The leading opposition party, headed by former Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot, was projected to win around 23 seats, with other parties securing varying numbers. Crucially, neither Netanyahu's right-wing and religious bloc nor the main opposition blocs appeared poised to secure the 61 seats typically required to form a government, leaving the path to coalition building uncertain.

The election was viewed as a referendum on Netanyahu's leadership following the security failures that preceded the Oct. 7 attacks, in which Hamas killed approximately 1,200 people and abducted 251 others. His opponents have accused him of failing to take responsibility for these failures.

Netanyahu campaigned on his record of confronting Iran and its proxies and highlighted his relationship with former U.S. President Donald Trump. His opponents, including Eisenkot, focused on challenging Netanyahu's government over its handling of the Oct. 7 attacks and the subsequent investigation.

Throughout the final hours of the campaign, party leaders engaged in intensive efforts to mobilize supporters. Netanyahu's Likud party utilized targeted digital outreach, while Eisenkot’s Yashar party urged voters to rally behind it as the primary alternative to Likud. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett also campaigned actively, engaging directly with voters.

The high voter turnout, reaching historic levels with 55.7% of eligible voters casting ballots by 4 p.m. local time, underscored the election's significance. Election officials streamlined procedures to accommodate the surge in participation.

In Israel's parliamentary system, voters elect parties, and the allocation of seats is proportional. Parties need at least 3.25% of the vote to enter the Knesset. After the official results are certified, expected by Nov. 4, Israeli President Isaac Herzog will consult with the newly elected factions to determine who has the best chance of forming a government. That candidate will then have 28 days, with a possible 14-day extension, to negotiate a coalition. Until a new government is established, Netanyahu's outgoing government will remain in power.