The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have captured the strategically significant Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon, a major Hezbollah and Iran stronghold. This development represents a significant blow to Iran's regional "Axis of Resistance" and Hezbollah's offensive capabilities, particularly its plans for an invasion of Israel.
According to defense and intelligence expert Lt. Col. (Res.) Sarit Zehavi, founder and president of the Alma Research and Education Center, Israeli military strikes over the past three years have degraded Hezbollah's military power. Zehavi stated that the IDF has eliminated or neutralized approximately 90% of Hezbollah's rocket and missile arsenal, leaving the group with an estimated 10,000 to 15,000 rockets, a significant reduction from its previous capacity. This loss has hampered Hezbollah's ability to execute large-scale invasions into Israel, a capability that Zehavi claims no longer exists due to the IDF's presence along the border.
The capture of Ali al-Taher ridge, located just over six miles from the Israeli border and overlooking the Litani River and Israel's Hula Valley, was a key objective for Hezbollah. Israeli channel 13's chief political analyst, Amit Segal, noted that the ridge was intended to be a base from which Hezbollah would coordinate attacks similar to Hamas's October 7 invasion of Israel.
The IDF announced that soldiers from the 36th Division cleared and neutralized underground routes in the Ali al-Taher Ridge area, achieving operational control and eliminating terrorists or forcing them to flee. The IDF stated that the neutralization of these underground routes has ended Hezbollah's capability to carry out terror attacks against Israeli civilians and soldiers from within them.
Despite these setbacks, Zehavi cautioned that as long as Iran continues to support Hezbollah through arms smuggling, funding, training, and other forms of assistance, the group will endeavor to rebuild its military capabilities. She emphasized that Iran's continued support makes preventing Hezbollah's resurgence difficult.
Hezbollah official Mahmoud Qamati acknowledged the importance of Ali al-Taher but stated its loss would not mean the end of the organization. Lebanon's Deputy Prime Minister Tarek Mitri suggested that the Lebanese army was prepared to take control of the ridge and accused Israel of preventing this for its own political reasons ahead of Israeli national elections. A U.S. State Department spokesperson asserted that Hezbollah is the primary obstacle to Lebanon's economic recovery and stability and bears sole responsibility for Israel's presence on Lebanese soil, calling for its disarmament and dismantling.
Hanin Ghaddar, a Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute, noted that Hezbollah is weakened on two fronts: loss of personnel and weapons, and a fractured support base within Lebanon's Shiite community. Ghaddar explained that Hezbollah is no longer perceived by some in the Shiite community as a protector or liberator, leading to divisions over continued support. Despite these challenges, Hezbollah has maintained economic and political influence within Lebanon through allied parties, securing key government ministries to aid in its rebuilding efforts.