Israel Braces for Pivotal Election Amid Deep Divisions

Israel stands on the precipice of a pivotal election, a contest deeply divided and anticipated as existential for the nation's future. Polls released Friday indicate a near tie between the governing coalition and the main opposition bloc, with hundreds of thousands of first-time voters and Israelis returning from abroad expected to cast ballots.

A Sharpened Political Landscape

The election campaign has seen the emergence of new tactics, including AI-generated videos, and the rise of a new figure in Gadi Eisenkot. A former military chief of staff, Eisenkot, associated with the centrist Yashar party, has been positioned as a calm, low-drama alternative to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving leader. Recent polls have shown Eisenkot's party narrowly ahead of Netanyahu's Likud party, reflecting a race that many Israelis perceive as critically important.

Eisenkot's appeal is often attributed to his personal background and demeanor. Hailing from a working-class Moroccan heritage and having experienced the loss of his son in the Gaza War, he presents himself as an outsider to Israel's elite. During a recent televised debate, a pro-Netanyahu figure used a racist slur against Eisenkot, highlighting the intensity of the campaign.

Eisenkot has articulated a vision for Israel that includes security, economic stability, and education, but he emphasizes that the election is primarily about the nation's identity. He advocates for a Jewish, democratic, liberal, tolerant, and egalitarian state. This message resonates with opposition supporters who argue that Netanyahu's government poses a threat to democracy, citing efforts to curb judicial powers and a refusal to establish a state inquiry into the October 7 attacks.

Security and Identity on the Ballot

Netanyahu's campaign has centered on security, with the slogan "No Surrender." He has portrayed his rivals as weak on security, warning that a potential alliance between Jewish opposition parties and Israel's Arab parties could compromise national safety. Approximately one-fifth of Israel's population is Arab.

These elections are the first since the October 7 attacks, when Hamas-led gunmen killed nearly 1,200 people and took 251 hostages. Supporters of Netanyahu, like Shlomi Bashar, acknowledge his responsibility but also credit him with reshaping the Middle East in the aftermath. They believe his re-election is necessary to continue this work.

However, the attacks have also pushed some traditional Likud voters toward further-right parties. Eyal Hajbi, a regional civil defense official from Sderot near the Gaza border, whose friends and colleagues died in the October 7 attacks, stated he was moving his vote from Likud to Itamar Ben Gvir's far-right Jewish Power party. He expressed a desire for a more forceful response to threats.

Younger voters, influenced by the October 7 attacks, are showing a strong inclination towards far-right parties. Teenagers from a religious college in Sderot indicated they would vote for parties like Religious Zionism, led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, believing that strength and an "iron fist" are necessary in dealing with Palestinians. They see the attacks as proof that peaceful gestures are ineffective.

Coalition Dynamics and Future Uncertainty

Beyond security concerns, issues of humanity and societal problems are driving some voters towards the opposition. Galia, who previously voted for centrist parties, is supporting Eisenkot, hoping for change and a focus on his stated principles. Her son Gal is considering Eisenkot or the left-leaning Democrats party, prioritizing economic, social, and educational issues.

While security versus democracy has been a long-standing political divide, the October 7 attacks and the current government have intensified these divisions. On international issues, the differences between the government and opposition are less pronounced. Eisenkot has pledged to end Hamas rule in Gaza within 18 months. Many opposition leaders support some form of Israeli settlement in the West Bank, and none have fully committed to Palestinian statehood, though some envision conditions for "autonomy or state-minus" under Israeli control.

Political instability remains a concern, as the election could result in a deadlock. The potential for Arab parties to become kingmakers exists, though most Jewish opposition parties have rejected alliances with them. With ongoing warnings of threats from Iran and concerns about potential election disruption and settler violence, Israel faces a critical juncture, testing its democracy and security simultaneously.