Iran is considering retaliatory attacks against U.S. military targets in Europe if President Donald Trump escalates the ongoing conflict, according to a report citing two individuals with knowledge of the Islamic Republic's internal discussions. These potential targets reportedly include American assets in southeastern European countries like Bulgaria, which recently authorized the use of its Bezmer air base for U.S. refueling aircraft. Cyprus, which hosts a British air base previously targeted by a drone in March, is also identified as a potential location for retaliation.
Beyond military installations, Iran is also reportedly contemplating attacks on subsea fiber-optic cables in the Strait of Hormuz as part of its escalation strategy. This defiant stance reflects a hardening mood in Tehran, where hardline factions increasingly view a resumption of full-scale conflict as inevitable.
Talks aimed at reopening the vital strait have stalled, and Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has recently appointed several veteran military and security hardliners to influential positions. This move has been interpreted by some experts as a signal that prospects for a lasting peace deal are diminishing.
U.S. officials have stated that no direct talks with Tehran are currently underway. However, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other military commanders have issued warnings that any new conflict could extend beyond the Middle East, targeting U.S. assets and infrastructure further afield. The IRGC previously stated that any base used to launch attacks on Iranian territory would be considered a legitimate target, specifically mentioning British bases as a potential concern.
While the threat of Iranian missile strikes on European targets is considered "real, but limited" by defense analysts, the capability exists. Medium-range ballistic missiles, such as Iran's Shahab series, could be deployed against U.S. assets in southern and southeastern Europe. However, experts suggest these missiles might struggle to inflict significant damage at longer ranges. The effectiveness and accuracy of such long-range strikes remain uncertain, with risks of missile failure or interception.
Iran's potential retaliation is contingent on Washington's military decisions. One insider indicated that Tehran is preparing plans to expand the conflict if Mr. Trump follows through on prior threats to strike Iranian infrastructure. The U.S. president previously stated that any attack on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz would result in the U.S. destroying Iranian bridges or power plants. Another insider asserted that Tehran would place "no limits" on its retaliation in the event of American aggression, warning that Iran would "defend itself at any price" and extend its reach to Europe.
Iran has previously demonstrated a willingness to strike distant targets. Following the outbreak of the conflict, the U.S. accused Iran of launching multiple missiles, which did not reach their targets, at the joint U.S.-UK military base on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, approximately 4,000 kilometers away. In March, NATO air defenses intercepted ballistic missiles launched from Iran over Turkey. Additionally, the UK's air base in Akrotiri, Cyprus, was struck by a drone, which Western officials attributed to Iranian proxy forces.
The recent attack on an American base in Jordan, which resulted in the deaths of three U.S. service members, is described by insiders as one of the regime's most precise long-range attacks, showcasing its capability to strike targets at greater distances. This attack was also viewed as a message to Europe, signaling its potential vulnerability to missile strikes.
A memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran, established in June, reportedly crumbled last month amid accusations of violations and retaliatory attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to renewed U.S. blockades on Iranian ports. Diplomatic efforts to reopen maritime trade routes and negotiate a broader settlement have thus far been unsuccessful.
Some within the Iranian regime reportedly believe Tehran is overplaying its hand. Many hardliners are skeptical of Washington's commitment to any peace process and advocate for imposing greater costs on the U.S. to ensure compliance with any final agreement. The recent appointment of Mohsen Rezaei, a former IRGC commander, to a top security post is seen by Iranian experts as a sign that figures focused on negotiation, like Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, have been sidelined, further indicating a hardening stance within the leadership.