President Donald Trump holds a strategic advantage over Iran, but Tehran is employing a tactic honed over decades to counter this power: widening the conflict's scope. This strategy, drawing parallels to Iran's actions during the Tanker War of the 1980s, seeks to multiply American obligations by threatening multiple vital global energy arteries, including the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb gateway.
Iran's approach involves responding to U.S. military actions not with direct military parity, but by shifting pressure to other areas. Following U.S. strikes on Iranian coastal defense and missile sites, Iran has targeted U.S.-linked sites in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, and attacked commercial tankers. This pattern suggests an effort to make each American strike create broader problems for Washington. The U.S. Central Command has confirmed strikes aimed at re-establishing a naval blockade on Iranian ports and degrading Tehran's ability to threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. This waterway is critical, with oil flow averaging approximately 20 million barrels a day in 2024, accounting for about one-fifth of global petroleum consumption.
A Historical Precedent
During the Iran-Iraq War, Iran used tactics involving mines and attacks on shipping to draw the U.S. Navy into Operation Earnest Will. The U.S. response, Operation Praying Mantis, significantly damaged Iran's navy. However, the lesson learned by Iran was that disrupting shipping lanes and creating oil market anxiety could force a more powerful adversary to defend a wider area. This strategy appears to be informing current Iranian actions.
Expanding the Pressure Points
Beyond the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is signaling its intent to leverage its Houthi allies in Yemen to threaten the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a crucial gateway to the Red Sea. Closing this chokepoint would compel tankers to reroute around southern Africa, significantly increasing transit times and costs for global energy shipments. A crisis affecting a single chokepoint is dangerous, but a situation involving two vital arteries presents a significant test of American endurance and strategic planning.
Unforced Errors and Strategic Discipline
The U.S. also faces challenges from its own policy decisions. President Trump's brief consideration and subsequent withdrawal of a proposed 20% toll on shipping through Hormuz created an inconsistency. The International Maritime Organization has stated there is no legal basis for mandatory tolls on international straits under transit-passage rules, making the U.S. position less credible when it briefly weighed imposing its own toll.
Military analysts suggest that a strategy of repetition without clear objectives could be detrimental. The danger lies in America's obligations multiplying rather than Iran's options narrowing. Tehran appears to be betting that each U.S. action will increase Washington's defensive burdens. To counter this, experts recommend greater discipline in public maritime policy announcements, clarity on the specific nature and goals of the military engagement, and the use of force to narrow, rather than expand, the conflict on Iran's terms.
Ultimately, Iran cannot defeat the United States militarily. However, its strategy aims to force a protracted engagement, making endurance a form of victory. While Trump holds a strong hand, the critical factor will be his administration's ability to prevent Iran from dictating the terms and scope of the conflict.