Three months after formally succeeding his father as Iran's supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen in public, reportedly recovering from injuries sustained in an airstrike. This prolonged absence has amplified questions about the ultimate authority within Iran's government and has led to a more independent and vocal political landscape among other power players.
For 36 years, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei held ultimate authority, with Iran's elected president and legislature subordinate to his decisions on all foreign and domestic policies. He also commanded the conventional military and the Revolutionary Guard Corps. Now, with Mojtaba Khamenei's status uncertain following the February 28 airstrike that killed his father, the established power structure appears to be in flux. State television has resorted to airing AI-generated videos of Mojtaba Khamenei, and written statements attributed to him are disseminated through his Telegram channel, but no current visual or audio recordings have been released.
US officials reportedly believe Mojtaba Khamenei is alive and involved in decision-making. However, his continued absence, particularly around his father's upcoming public funeral on July 4, is expected to intensify speculation about his capacity to fill the role. This transition period is raising the possibility of a regime that is less overtly religious but potentially more nationalistic and authoritarian.
A System of Rivals
The inherent structure of Iran's government, with civilian leaders ultimately answerable to the supreme religious authority, has historically complicated diplomatic negotiations. While Mojtaba Khamenei has reportedly authorized negotiators for direct talks with the U.S. and weighed in on specific points, his involvement is not yet as active as his father's was in similar situations. "There is evidence that the power that the supreme leader exercises has diminished significantly," said Hussein Banai, an expert on Iranian politics and professor at Indiana University Bloomington. Normally, the supreme leader acts as a central coordinating figure, ensuring all factions present a unified message. This coordination appears to be absent now, with different branches of government voicing their own positions.
The deaths of numerous senior figures in the recent airstrikes have contributed to a perceived power vacuum in Tehran. "Everyone is fighting for their relevance in this next iteration of the Islamic Republic," stated Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East program at Chatham House.
On the civilian side, President Masoud Pezeshkian, who took power in 2024, saw his influence curtailed during the war. His position as an advocate for diplomacy could strengthen if current talks yield economic relief for Iranians. Mohammed Ghalibaf, the speaker of the Iranian parliament, has gained prominence, leading negotiations with the U.S. and frequently appearing in media. Ghalibaf, a conservative populist, has seen his public and international profile rise amid the war.
The military side has seen the ascent of Ahmad Vahidi, commander in chief of the Revolutionary Guard. Vahidi has reportedly pushed for actions, such as new missile strikes in June, that could jeopardize ceasefire negotiations. Vahidi is under U.S. sanctions and is wanted by Interpol for his alleged role in the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center in Argentina. He reportedly participated in U.S.-Iran talks during the Reagan administration, known as Iran-Contra.
Experts suggest that Iran's current leadership might be more technocratic, having come of age during the Iran-Iraq War rather than the 1970s anti-Shah resistance. This cohort may be more amenable to direct talks with the U.S. but also more willing to risk force, according to Iranian-American scholars Narges Bajoghli and Vali Nasr. Domestically, there are signs of religious laws loosening, with less strict enforcement of the hijab mandate since the 2022 protests. Some anticipate a promotion of more secular authoritarian nationalism, potentially evidenced by women appearing unveiled at pro-regime rallies.
"The system is in control of the system," Vakil said, suggesting that a collective leadership is currently guiding Iran. "There’s no one commander in chief. It is a system that is commanding collectively for the time being." This collective command structure could lead to a more unpredictable Iran.
President Donald Trump has claimed Iran's new leaders are more reasonable, and U.S. officials report developing productive relationships. However, Iran's recent actions, including missile strikes amid ceasefire talks, demonstrate a willingness to risk blowing up negotiations when perceived red lines are crossed.
While the world awaits clarity on Mojtaba Khamenei's role and the eventual formation of a new system, the resulting regime is unlikely to be more democratic. It may, however, emerge as less ideological and religious, potentially becoming more aggressive.