Iran has reportedly instructed Yemen's Houthi movement to prepare to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a critical maritime gateway to the Red Sea, should the United States launch attacks on Iranian infrastructure, according to a Reuters report citing three sources. This directive signals Iran's intent to potentially use the Houthi group as a proxy for retaliation, experts warn, which could significantly disrupt global shipping lanes.
Sources close to the Houthis indicated that missiles and drones have been deployed near the waterway, and the group is awaiting orders to commence attacks on shipping. Nadwa Al-Dawsari of the Middle East Institute stated that such a threat should be taken seriously, especially given recent escalations and U.S. actions against Iran, suggesting the Bab al-Mandab could become part of Tehran's response.
While the Houthis have largely refrained from direct attacks on shipping over the past year, they have continued to develop their maritime capabilities, including missiles, drones, and sea mines, according to Al-Dawsari. Even if the group cannot completely seal the strait, it could potentially disrupt commercial traffic significantly, increasing costs and risks for maritime transport.
The Bab al-Mandab Strait connects the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, making it a vital chokepoint for international trade. Any disruption here would compound existing challenges, as Iran has also previously disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, another key route for global energy supplies. A substantial volume of Gulf oil has already been rerouted through Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, with approximately 7% of global energy supplies now relying on the Bab al-Mandab route.
Experts suggest that any decision to escalate actions in the Bab al-Mandab would be a strategic move coordinated with Iran and its allies, rather than solely Houthi-driven. A source close to the Houthis claimed that representatives of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Yemen would oversee the timing of any move against the strait.
Previous Houthi threats against maritime traffic include a declared ban on Israeli-owned ships in the Red Sea, labeling them as "legitimate targets." The U.S. State Department has previously characterized such actions by Iran and the Houthis as "unacceptable" and "dangerous," warning of potential regional escalation and further disruption to global supply chains.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has consistently condemned Houthi attacks and urged all parties to avoid further escalation. His spokesperson noted that disruptions could endanger seafarers, freedom of navigation, and global supply chains, impacting the economic and humanitarian situation in Yemen and beyond. The U.N. Security Council Resolution 2722 (2024) demands an immediate end to Houthi attacks on commercial vessels.
The reported threat has also drawn attention to Iranian weapons networks supporting the Houthis' arsenal. Concerns have been raised regarding a U.N.-brokered detainee agreement that might include individuals accused of assisting Iranian weapons transfers to the Houthis, potentially creating a security vacuum that Iran could exploit. The Office of the U.N. Special Envoy for Yemen stated that the U.N. and the International Committee of the Red Cross do not determine which detainees are released; their role is limited to mediating negotiations and overseeing implementation, with parties agreeing on released individuals.