Iran Regime Faces Escalating Attacks in Southeast from Rebel Coalition

A coalition of Iranian opposition groups, known as the People’s Fighters Front (JMM), has intensified armed attacks against the clerical regime in the southeastern provinces of Sistan and Baluchistan and Kerman. These strikes are contributing to instability and prompting scrutiny of the regime's ability to maintain control over Sistan and Baluchistan, a predominantly Sunni province in a largely Shiite Muslim country where the Sunni minority has faced discrimination.

According to an October report by the Human Rights Activist News Agency (HRANA), armed incidents in the southeastern provinces of Sistan and Baluchistan and Kerman escalated significantly, with 63 documented occurrences between March 31 and October 10. These incidents resulted in at least 94 deaths and 33 injuries, while official sources reported 87 fatalities and 10 injuries. The pace of violence accelerated markedly in the weeks leading up to the report, with 18 incidents recorded in the final 18 days of the reporting period.

The JMM coalition was formed in December 2025, uniting Baloch nationalist organizations with the militant Sunni group Jaish al-Adl. The coalition's recent attacks have targeted mid-level regime officials and security personnel. On October 14, the JMM claimed responsibility for assassinating female members of the Basij paramilitary, including a commander and a police officer in Sistan and Baluchistan Province. The Basij is designated a terrorist entity by the U.S. government as part of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Days prior to the attack on the female Basij commander, Iranian state media reported the death of Nosrat Eftekhari, deputy for Cultural and Social Affairs of the Provincial Law Enforcement Command, from a roadside bomb in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan. The IRGC has a headquarters in the region dedicated to combating these groups.

Experts suggest that while the armed groups may not establish full control, their actions can significantly weaken the regime's authority. Mardo Soghom, an Iran expert, noted that the Sunni unrest can strain the regime's military and internal security capabilities and have a psychological impact. He added that it remains an open question whether these forces are receiving assistance from adversaries of the Islamic Republic, such as Gulf Arab states, Israel, or the U.S.

Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), observed an uptick in activity in Sistan and Baluchistan Province. He noted that preserving Iran's territorial integrity is a critical for the opposition and needs to be understood in Western capitals. While he does not foresee an imminent threat of the regime losing control, he highlighted the significance of this issue to Iranians.

Baluch activist and journalist Khalilullah Balochi stated that the intensified attacks are a new development, even though the activities of these groups are not new. Navid Mohebbi, a former Persian media analyst for the State Department, commented that the JMM's attacks have drawn public attention, and the killing of certain security and military operatives has been met with some satisfaction among segments of Iranian society, particularly at a time when the regime is executing protesters.

Mohebbi also noted that the Iranian public remains cautious due to concerns about potential separatist ambitions and the influence of radical Islamism, which contrasts with the increasingly secular outlook of Iranian society. However, he pointed out that the JMM's recent statements have avoided explicit references to Baluch separatism, instead focusing on dismantling the Velayat-e Faqih system and liberating the country.

Beni Sabti, an Iran expert at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Israel, described the situation as an "armed rebellion" in the provinces but acknowledged its limitation to the Baluchistan region. He suggested that the regime does not exert firm control over these provinces, drawing parallels to situations in South America where governments have lost sovereignty to militias. Sabti added that the JMM can primarily harm soldiers and occasionally kill commanders, noting the abundance of local commanders within Iran.