Iran has put forth a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, contingent on the United States lifting its naval blockade of Iranian ports, waiving sanctions on Iranian oil sales, and observing a ceasefire that would encompass Lebanon. The offer was detailed by Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi during a private gathering on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York.
Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute think tank, suggested that Araghchi indicated a swift agreement could benefit U.S. President Donald Trump ahead of the November midterm elections, while also alleviating economic pressure on Tehran amid escalating U.S. sanctions.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately one-fifth of the world's traded oil and gas passed before the conflict, has become Iran's primary leverage point, with disruptions impacting markets far beyond the Middle East. No immediate comment was available from Iran's U.N. mission or other Iranian officials. A person familiar with the matter expressed Saudi Arabia's skepticism regarding the renewed push for a deal.
Proposal Echoes Past Agreements with Accelerated Timeline
The current proposal mirrors an earlier Memorandum of Understanding reached in June, but with a compressed timeline. That prior agreement, which included a 60-day interim period, ultimately failed as Iran resumed attacks on shipping in the strait. President Trump has indicated no urgency for a deal, despite the inflationary impact of high oil prices.
Within Iran, there are internal divisions regarding potential compromises, with hard-liners dominating security forces and moderates like President Masoud Pezeshkian advocating for diplomatic steps. Parsi noted that if President Trump perceives a political advantage from an arrangement before the midterms, flexibility might emerge, but deep suspicion remains, particularly concerning Iran's potential intent to simply use the period to increase oil exports and ease economic strain.
Signs of Diplomatic Engagement
Indications of renewed diplomacy include President Pezeshkian's meeting with the prime minister of Qatar, a key mediator in recent indirect Iran-U.S. talks at the U.N. President Pezeshkian addressed the U.N. General Assembly on Wednesday, reaffirming Iran's openness to diplomacy. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also stated that the U.S. would engage if opportunities for exchanging messages arise.
However, past failures have fostered high levels of mistrust on both sides. The U.S. and Israel initiated the conflict with an attack on Iran shortly before nuclear talks, resulting in the death of Iran's supreme leader. Both nations accuse each other of violating the June agreement.
Parsi suggested that Iran's emphasis on speed stems from a belief that Washington is using diplomacy to prevent pre-emptive strikes before the midterm elections.
Potential Scope of the Proposal
The proposal explicitly includes Lebanon, where a ceasefire has largely been observed between Israel and Hezbollah. However, it remains unclear if the conflict between Yemen's Houthi rebels and Saudi Arabia, which has further pressured global markets, would be covered. Iran appears to believe the Houthis' increased capacity to threaten the Bab el-Mandeb strait could compel President Trump toward a deal.
Maj. Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi, a military adviser to Iran's supreme leader, stated that Americans "face a new problem called the Bab el-Mandeb Strait" and predicted that the unfolding process favors Iran, forcing American acceptance of its conditions.
Despite the Houthi surge in attacks, Saudi Arabia has reportedly expressed skepticism about Araghchi's proposal. While Gulf states had previously favored a return to negotiations and even a temporary Iranian role in managing the Strait of Hormuz, their calculus shifted following Houthi advances on Yemen's Red Sea coast and an attack on a vital Saudi oil pipeline. A planned meeting of Gulf leaders in Oman to discuss an Omani-Iranian agreement on the Strait of Hormuz was canceled after Saudi Arabia requested amendments that Iran did not fully accept.
Internal Divisions Within Iran
While Iran's leadership projects unity, some hard-liners advocate for escalating the conflict to secure greater concessions and have criticized diplomatic overtures. Lawmaker Ebrahim Rezaei argued that engagement with the "aggressor enemy" demonstrates weakness, and Iran's Assembly of Experts stated that "there is no path other than resistance."
Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi, head of the Revolutionary Guard, highlighted President Pezeshkian's remarks that Iran does not fear war. Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf acknowledged an internal divide, noting one faction advocating for war without a clear conclusion and another underestimating national capabilities. He warned that the former maintains a state of crisis, while the latter risks surrendering national resources and dignity.