Iran Miscalculating by Relying on Midterms for Leverage, Trump Officials Say

Trump administration officials assert that Iran is miscalculating by assuming rising oil prices and the upcoming U.S. midterm elections will diminish President Donald Trump's leverage in negotiations aimed at ending the ongoing conflict.

Administration officials project confidence that sustained economic pressure on Tehran will compel it toward a deal, despite recent talks concluding after three hours without a publicly announced breakthrough. "The president holds all of the cards here," Tommy Pigott, State Department principal deputy spokesperson, told Fox News Digital. The remarks came on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly.

Americans are currently experiencing higher fuel costs, with the national average for regular gasoline reaching $4.49 per gallon, according to AAA. This increase is attributed to volatility in the Strait of Hormuz and high crude oil prices. Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged these domestic costs but argued that the long-term price of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon would be significantly higher.

Trump himself articulated the stakes during his address to the U.N. General Assembly, presenting Iran with a choice between reaching a deal to rebuild or facing further U.S. action. He predicted Tehran would ultimately opt for a deal, believing they are waiting to assess his performance in the midterm elections. "What they don't realize is that I'm not running," Trump stated, adding that the election outcome would not influence his decisions regarding Iran.

A U.S. official described the discussions through mediators as "positive and constructive" but emphasized that the administration is not rushing into an agreement. "The United States is in a very strong position with control of the Strait of Hormuz, so we are not in a rush," the official said, noting that nearly 40 million barrels of oil had transited the strait in the preceding 48 hours. The official predicted that oil and gas prices would return to pre-conflict levels as the U.S. maintains control over the strait.

While Trump described the recent three-hour meeting with Iranian officials as "very good," Rubio cautioned against viewing it as a "major breakthrough," characterizing it as a continuation of previous discussions. "I think it was significant that at least there was a conversation," Rubio said.

Iran has since presented its own proposal, a seven-day plan to restore passage through the Strait of Hormuz if certain conditions are met, followed by renewed negotiations for a broader agreement. A mediator indicated that while discussions were positive, they remained in their early stages.

Rubio suggested that Iran is fundamentally misunderstanding the U.S. political system. "I think the Iranians misread our system," Rubio said. "I think the Iranians are under this illusion that Democrats are going to win in November, and the president will no longer be able to do things against them." He reiterated that while Congress holds power, presidents possess significant authority, especially as commander in chief. "So I think that the Iranians are fundamentally misreading our political system," Rubio continued.

Administration officials also highlighted the economic pressure exerted on Tehran and the growing oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz as indicators of favorable conditions for the U.S. Pigott noted that hundreds of millions of dollars are being denied to the Iranian regime through the current blockade.

Beyond the direct negotiations, the U.S. is also addressing threats to regional energy infrastructure. Iran-backed Houthi rebels have targeted Saudi Arabia amidst the conflict, adding uncertainty to global energy markets. Rubio emphasized the critical importance of restarting a Saudi pipeline for both the Saudi and global economies, noting that energy infrastructure has been targeted by both the Houthis and Shiite militias in Iraq, which the U.S. attributes to Iranian backing.

"Every time you guys ask me a question about the Middle East, it goes back to someone who's supported by Iran," Rubio stated. He affirmed that the U.S. would uphold its defense commitments to Saudi Arabia, a "strategic defense partner."