National security analysts are warning that Iran could unleash "kinetic" military strikes as early as this fall, targeting a list of high-value assets in an effort to counter increasing U.S. economic sanctions. This warning comes as tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalate, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stating that Washington is preparing "unprecedented economic action" against the country.
Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Fox News Digital that Tehran is likely to increase military pressure in parallel with intensified sanctions. "Come early fall, what we can expect is for them to kinetically push back against Trump's economic policy," Taleblu said. "If the president is re-embracing economic pressure as a management approach, just like we saw in 2019, then the regime will use kinetic pressure to try to find a way to break out of that economic containment."
Taleblu indicated that shrinking oil revenues and the U.S. naval blockade could drive Tehran to expand its target list across the region. "This means they would embrace the kinetic tool, and that's how they would get out of the economic containment regime that the U.S. seems to be defaulting to want to put on them," he added. Potential targets could include "more attacks on ships, potentially more attacks on U.S. bases, potentially more attacks on Arab infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, and certainly the regime would create a tiered list of targets of what is of immediate value versus what has greater economic value versus what might lead to the U.S. directly or indirectly responding."
This assessment follows an incident where two vessels were struck while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, according to the United Arab Emirates' state-run WAM news agency. The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company reported no injuries, and the UAE foreign ministry condemned the actions. The situation has put a spotlight on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global trade corridor.
The warnings emerge amid a deadlock in negotiations between Washington and Tehran. Talks regarding an extension of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement have not occurred, according to a senior Iranian source who spoke to Reuters on August 12. Tehran has maintained its demand for Washington to return to the original pact and establish a clear timeline for fulfilling its obligations.
An interim memorandum of understanding, signed in June, had called for the "immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts." However, the agreement later dissolved, with President Donald Trump declaring it "over" on July 7. Under the initial framework, both sides had a 60-day window to negotiate a final agreement addressing key security concerns, including Iran's nuclear program. That deadline was set to expire on August 17.
A major point of contention has been control of the Strait of Hormuz. Hossein Taeb, the newly appointed head of Iran's Basij paramilitary force, stated on Thursday that the strait remains "under Iran's control and management." This assertion contrasted with Trump's prior declaration that the U.S. held "total control" over the waterway.
Taleblu suggested that Iran's approach involves a strategy of "a knife in the back and a handshake in the front to many of America's traditional Gulf partners." He noted that Iranian escalation and diplomatic pressure seem aimed at pushing the Trump administration back toward the MOU. "The regime definitely does not want to grant the Trump administration the optics of victory, and to that end, they're quite keen to hold on to the Strait of Hormuz," he said.
President Trump has characterized the sanctions-driven strategy as a "low-key" approach. However, Taleblu emphasized that "these are high-impact tools," adding, "I think part of the escalation that we saw in the summer of 2019 — part of that past could be a prologue."