Iran may find a strategy of limited conflict more advantageous than outright peace, as it could allow the nation to maintain economic and political leverage on the global stage while mitigating domestic pressures. This approach could see Iran carefully managing its confrontations to keep pressure on the United States and its allies without escalating to an all-out war.
Reshaping Global Trade and Diplomacy
A key aspect of this potential strategy involves disrupting global shipping routes. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and near the Bab al-Mandab strait, facilitated by Iran's allies like the Houthis, continue to impact global shipping, increase insurance costs, and affect energy markets. These ongoing disturbances, even if limited, compel governments, shipowners, and importers to acknowledge Iran's demands. From Tehran's perspective, this situation might be preferable to a ceasefire that leaves existing sanctions and economic isolation largely unchanged. This could also be an effort to reshape diplomatic discussions, moving away from unrestricted freedom of navigation towards a framework that incorporates Iranian influence in maritime security agreements, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz.
Domestic Considerations
Domestically, Iran faces significant challenges, including high inflation, unemployment, economic hardship, and public dissatisfaction. Governments in periods of external conflict often find it easier to suppress internal dissent, enforce stricter security measures, and rally nationalistic support. While such a strategy does not resolve underlying economic problems, it may alleviate immediate political pressure stemming from them. The government's ability to control the narrative and focus public attention on external threats could serve to unify the population and bolster support for the ruling establishment.
Economic Isolation and Regional Dynamics
The potential for limited conflict could also alter regional economic dynamics. While Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and other regional oil and gas exporters could gradually resume normal export operations, Iran might remain economically isolated. However, by maintaining a level of controlled crisis, Iran could argue that its actions are necessary responses to perceived external pressures, thereby justifying its stance on international shipping regulations and potentially garnering some level of regional or international understanding for its position. The strategy allows Iran to pay a military and economic price while still asserting influence over vital global trade routes.