Iran may increase its aggressive actions in the Strait of Hormuz and other strategic waterways as the United States approaches its midterm elections, according to Iranian insiders and foreign policy experts. This potential escalation is seen as a calculated gamble by Tehran, aiming to exploit perceived political vulnerabilities in the U.S. ahead of the November vote.
According to two Iranian sources familiar with the regime's planning, the midterm elections represent a key pressure point that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps intends to exploit. Retired General Jack Keane suggested that Iran is betting on President Donald Trump's reluctance to initiate major military action before the elections. "My gut feel is that they're likely going to get more aggressive because they don't believe the President will do much prior to the midterms in terms of military actions," Keane stated.
This strategy, however, carries significant risks. Former U.S. diplomat Jonathan Wachtel described the situation as a "high-risk gamble," emphasizing that "major confrontations often begin when one side misunderstands the other's willingness to respond." He noted that Iranian leaders closely study American military capabilities and political calendars. Jonathan Schanzer, executive director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, warned that Tehran's approach could backfire catastrophically. "The regime believes it can exacerbate those problems by maintaining the current course or even escalating," Schanzer said. "The regime is brittle, bankrupt and weak. By extending the crisis or escalating, the risk of regime collapse is real. They are playing with fire."
The context for Iran's alleged plan includes domestic political challenges for Trump, such as national average gas prices exceeding $4 per gallon, with no immediate end in sight. Trump himself conceded recently that the U.S. was "low-keying" peace talks with Iran after a ceasefire deal collapsed.
Meanwhile, Iran has sought to counter U.S. assertions of control over the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian state media has highlighted reports of Trump secretly switching planes to avoid an assassination threat during a visit to Turkey, framing it as evidence of his fear of Iran's military power. The Islamic Republic's embassy in South Africa posted a graphic implying Trump faced peril, accompanied by a warning that he "will be hidden in a trash can before long."
Hossein Taeb, head of Iran's Basij paramilitary unit, asserted that the Strait of Hormuz remains under the direct "management and control" of the Islamic Republic, claiming Iran continues its naval operations in security. He stated that U.S. attempts to disrupt Iran's regional standing had failed.
President Trump, in response, declared on social media that the U.S. would "keep" control of the vital shipping lane, describing the American naval presence as a "Wall of steel" against which "nothing Iran can do about it." He further claimed Iran possesses "no Navy" and "no Air Force," with unpaid soldiers and uncertain leadership.