Iran May Escalate Covert Attacks as Experts Warn of Shadow War Dangers

Experts are warning that Iran may be escalating its shadow war against the United States and Israel, potentially moving into more dangerous territory with covert attacks that offer plausible deniability. This concern is fueled by two recent incidents: a suspected terror plot near a British airbase used by U.S. forces and an alleged attack aboard a FlyDubai flight.

The incident near RAF Fairford, a British airbase, has led to the arrest of a dual UK-Iranian national on suspicion of preparing terrorist acts. British Prime Minister Andy Burnham stated there were "strong indications" Iran played a role in this plot. Concurrently, former President Donald Trump has issued a warning, suggesting early information points to a possible Iranian connection to an attack aboard an Israel-bound FlyDubai flight, where a co-pilot allegedly assaulted the captain and attempted to crash the plane with over 180 people on board.

Shifting Tactics or Isolated Incidents?

While these events are raising questions about a potential shift in Iran's war strategy, experts caution against immediate conclusions. Daniel Byman, director of the Warfare, Irregular Threats and Terrorism Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, noted that the Fairford case aligns more closely with Iran's recent patterns of using hired operatives and intermediaries. "The attack on the airbase in the United Kingdom does fit more recent patterns," Byman told Fox News Digital, while emphasizing the ongoing nature of the investigations.

However, Byman considers the FlyDubai attack a more significant departure from Iran's traditional methods. "That is quite different, and that is something that Iran in the past, at least we haven't seen Iran do," he said. "It is plausible to me that Iran is involved, but that seems like much more of a stretch based on Iran's traditional way of operating."

Matthew Levitt, a former Treasury and FBI counterterrorism official, echoed this sentiment, highlighting Iran's long-standing strategy of using proxies, covert operatives, and criminal networks to threaten adversaries abroad while obscuring its own involvement. "Typically Iran does not admit that it's involved in these types of attacks because it wants reasonable deniability," Levitt stated.

Advantages of Covert Operations

Experts suggest that Iran benefits strategically from these covert operations. "Terrorism gives Iran a lot more reach," Byman explained. He added that unlike a direct missile or drone strike, which clearly identifies the aggressor, covert actions make it difficult to pinpoint responsibility, thus complicating retaliatory responses. Levitt elaborated, "If Iran shoots a drone or a missile at you, you know where it came from and you know where to shoot back. But if Iran uses proxies, and recruits people and does things in a covert manner, it might not be so easy to point a finger back at Iran or to know exactly who did it."

This strategy is particularly relevant given Iran's conventional military limitations compared to the United States and its allies. Levitt characterized Iran's strength as lying in "asymmetric warfare, at covert terrorist activity, if that's what this proves to be."

Recent U.S. federal cases have detailed alleged Iranian operations, including attempts to recruit hitmen to kill U.S. officials and using organized crime figures in plots targeting Iranian-American dissidents. These operations leverage Iran's ability to pursue targets overseas without initiating a direct confrontation that would immediately identify Tehran as the aggressor.

Potential for Escalation

It remains uncertain whether the current geopolitical climate will compel Iran to further embrace such tactics. Levitt suggested that Tehran might use overseas plots to pressure Western governments to de-escalate conflicts by demonstrating Iran's capacity to impose costs beyond conventional battlefields. If the Fairford and FlyDubai incidents are indeed linked to Iran, they could represent a move towards harder targets and more ambitious tactics than typically seen in past operations.

Conversely, Byman pointed out reasons for restraint. Iran possesses other means to pressure adversaries, and a major terrorist attack could unify U.S. public opinion in favor of escalation. Additionally, U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iranian intelligence officials may have disrupted networks necessary for orchestrating such overseas operations. "If Iran wants to go further, then terrorism does become more of an option," Byman concluded.