Regional officials have stated that Iran is developing a new network of proxies to target U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf, with Yemen's Houthi rebels reportedly aiding Iraqi militias in drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities.
In July, Saudi Arabia and the United States conducted airstrikes against Iran-backed militias in Iraq, attributing drone attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure to them. Intelligence indicates that the Houthis played a role in planning and executing these attacks, marking a significant increase in coordinated efforts between the groups, according to regional officials and intelligence shared with The Associated Press.
This development follows Iran's decades-long strategy of cultivating armed groups on Israel's borders. Following major losses sustained by Palestinian militants and Hezbollah in the wars after Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, attack, Iran appears to be shifting its focus.
According to regional officials and experts, Iran is now leveraging Iraqi militias and the Houthis to pressure Saudi Arabia and other American allies in the Gulf. This strategy aims to increase the costs associated with the ongoing conflict initiated by the U.S. and Israel in Gaza.
Officials confirmed the Houthi involvement in the Iraqi drone attack through intelligence assessments and reports from a senior Iraqi security official. These sources indicated that Houthi representatives were present in an operations room managed by Iraqi militias. In response to the attacks, Saudi Arabia and the U.S. launched joint airstrikes, resulting in the deaths of at least 20 Iraqi fighters, six Iranian advisers, and one Houthi official. The presence and activities of Houthis in Iraq are a concern for the U.S., which fears their capacity to launch attacks on other nations, including Saudi Arabia.
However, officials from the Popular Mobilization Forces, an umbrella group of Iraqi militias, have denied any involvement in the Saudi attacks and refuted claims of Houthi operations under their supervision. The PMF encompasses powerful Iranian-backed militias that sometimes operate independently.
Cooperation between Iraqi militias and the Houthis has reportedly intensified since the war in Gaza began, with coordinated attacks against Israel. Houthi leader Abdel-Malek al-Houthi had previously spoken of a joint operations room.
Following U.S. and Israeli actions on February 28, Iran and its allies reportedly initiated attacks on Gulf nations, aiming to broaden the conflict and impact major oil producers that host American forces. An adviser to Iran's parliament speaker, Mahdi Mohammadi, described this as a "hybrid strategy."
Experts suggest that the Houthis' increased prominence during the Gaza war has created new opportunities in Iraq. Ahmed Nagi, a senior Yemen analyst at the Crisis Group, noted that many Iraqi groups have become more willing to support the Houthis, who in turn share military expertise. This collaboration is described as "squeezing Saudi like with pliers."
In addition to the drone attacks, the Houthis declared a blockade against Saudi shipping in the Red Sea a week prior, threatening another vital trade route. Since late July, the Houthis have launched over a dozen attacks targeting Saudi oil facilities and tankers in the Red Sea, according to the war monitor ACLED. These attacks have led Saudi Arabia to implement a "dark" transit policy for oil tankers in the Red Sea, disabling tracking signals.
This escalation in the Red Sea follows disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia had rerouted significant oil shipments to the Red Sea after Iran's actions there. However, the Houthi attacks have forced the kingdom to increasingly divert oil north through the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline, with flows rising substantially in August.
The Houthis have demonstrated the ability to target these northern routes as well, having struck a Saudi tanker in the northern Red Sea with a missile last month. This tanker had reportedly traveled from the Saudi port of Yanbu to the Suez Canal.
Experts believe the Houthis are willing to endure short-term consequences for perceived long-term gains, such as expanding their influence along the Red Sea coast. The situation has raised concerns about a potential return to full-scale conflict, particularly given the U.S. focus on Iran and Saudi Arabia's reluctance to re-engage in Yemen.
The Houthis seized Yemen's capital, Sanaa, in 2014, prompting a Saudi-led intervention the following year. The protracted civil war has resulted in significant casualties and humanitarian crises. A ceasefire that had largely held since 2022 is now reportedly in tatters.
While a Saudi-led blockade has long pressured the Houthis, renewed fighting could allow them to gain control of energy-rich areas in eastern Yemen, according to Yemen expert Elisabeth Kendall.
Despite a U.N. arms embargo, the Houthis, who control northern and central Yemen, have reportedly smuggled in advanced weaponry, including cruise and ballistic missiles, drones, and unmanned submarines. While Iran denies providing arms, Iranian-made weapons have been recovered.
Saudi-backed forces are engaged in counteroffensives on multiple fronts in Yemen. However, Saudi Arabia appears hesitant to directly target the Houthis again, though continued escalation by the rebels may necessitate decisive action, according to Kendall.