Iran-backed Houthi forces have seized the strategic Yemeni port city of Mocha and are advancing toward positions overlooking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical chokepoint for global shipping. This development opens a new front that could significantly disrupt trade and energy shipments, particularly as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained.
The Houthi advance threatens the southern gateway to the Red Sea, a route increasingly utilized by Saudi Arabia to circumvent the Strait of Hormuz. Control over both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would place Iran-backed forces on opposite sides of the Arabian Peninsula, a situation experts warn could lead to significant increases in oil and goods prices.
"Now you have Iran on one side of the Arabian Peninsula controlling Hormuz, and now the Houthis controlling Bab el-Mandeb on the other side of the peninsula," Hisham Al-Omeisy, senior Yemen adviser at the European Institute of Peace, told Fox News Digital. "Which basically is going to drive prices — oil prices, goods and everything else — up exponentially."
Yemeni government sources reported that the Houthis captured Mocha and reached the Hanish Islands, while Saudi-backed forces withdrew southward. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, at its narrowest point about 18 miles wide, connects the Indian Ocean and Gulf of Aden with the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, serving as a vital artery for trade between Asia and Europe, as well as for energy shipments.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a substantial increase in crude oil and petroleum liquids moving through Bab el-Mandeb in the second quarter of 2024, averaging 8.1 million barrels per day, up from 5.4 million barrels per day in the final quarter of 2023. During the same period, flows through Hormuz decreased significantly.
A senior administration official stated that the United States is focused on protecting its national security interests, including ensuring freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, while empowering regional partners to manage security challenges. The U.S. is reportedly in continuous dialogue with Saudi Arabia and the Republic of Yemen Government regarding regional stability.
Reports from Yemeni government, Iranian, and regional sources suggest that Iranian arms and direct guidance from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards played a role in the Houthi advance. Two Iranian sources reportedly indicated that Tehran instructed the Houthis to intensify attacks on Saudi Arabia and promised additional funding and weapons, though Iran has publicly denied directing Houthi operations.
The Houthi seizure of Mocha occurs amidst a significant escalation of hostilities. Conflict-monitoring organization ACLED recorded at least 276 fatalities between September 3 and September 7 as clashes spread across several Yemeni provinces. Fighting along the Red Sea coast has intensified as both sides vie for control of territory strategic to the Bab el-Mandeb.
Saudi forces reportedly launched at least 15 strikes against the Houthis between September 3 and September 7, marking an increase in Saudi engagement. The Houthis responded with drone and ballistic missile attacks on Saudi cities, injuring 73 people.
The escalating conflict also presents a test for a new joint defense agreement between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey. However, Pakistan indicated that no military response under the pact is currently under discussion.
The Houthis have stated that international navigation through the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb remains safe, while maintaining a blockade on Saudi vessels. Experts warn that reversing the Houthis' territorial gains could prove difficult due to their entrenched positions and reinforcement capabilities.
Oil markets have reacted to the widening regional threat, with Brent crude prices surging more than 5% and U.S. crude climbing above $100 a barrel.